Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedJuly 31

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$1.4MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOtvalmasirah92%match100¢
#New_Press Lloyd's List Magazine: Shipping data confirms Yemeni blockade limited to Saudi ships 58 container ships cross Bab al-Mandab in a week that recorded the highest level in July International shipping traffic in the Red Sea continues its activity normally and stably #Echo_of_the_News
NOMaritime analytics97%match100¢
Bab el-Mandeb crossings dropped to a lower baseline after the July 20 Houthi threat announcement, driven by falling Saudi-linked traffic. However, the rest of the corridor has held steady for two weeks at an average of 37 crossings per day (~22% below pre-announcement levels), showing non-Saudi traffic continues to move. • • Saudi-linked crossings fell to 0.86 crossings per day last week, the lowest yet, with zero crossings on 3 of 7 days. • • Follow for daily updates:
NOmarinetraffic97%match96¢+4%
Hormuz traffic falls as Bab el-Mandeb activity rises • • Maritime activity remained uneven across the region’s key chokepoints on 23 July, with no new confirmed IMO attacks reported. According to #MarineTraffic data, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just six confirmed crossings, down 60% day-on-day. Five of the six vessels followed the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, highlighting the continued concentration of traffic along that route. • • Meanwhile, Bab el-Mandeb recorded 49 confirmed crossings, including five sanctioned vessels, 11 shadow-fleet vessels and four dark transits. Several ships that had previously reversed course in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea later completed their passages, while others remain on hold.
YESRussian Media94%match4¢-100%
Ships linked to the US, Israel, or Saudi Arabia should avoid sailing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden until the threat level decreases, EUNAVFOR Aspides said. On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and sent a letter to shipping companies urging them to avoid loading and unloading at the kingdom's ports, threatening attacks on vessels. Following the warnings, several oil tankers changed their route, refusing to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. How will the naval blockade of Saudi Arabia affect the country's economy and the oil market? Read our article. More IZ RU news in MAX
YESRussian Media91%match4¢-100%
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: How will the naval blockade of Saudi Arabia affect the country's economy and the oil market? Escalation of the conflict Ties between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia escalated after an attack on the runway of the airport in Sana'a, where a plane carrying representatives of the Houthi movement was landing. Although the official Yemeni authorities claimed responsibility for the attack, the Houthis blamed Riyadh for the strikes and attacked the Saudi airport in Abha. In addition, a maritime embargo was imposed on Saudi Arabia. According to the Houthis, this was a response to the "siege" of the people of Yemen and the "plundering of the country's resources." The threat appears real, since the group has previously carried out attacks on ships in the Red Sea. The attacks now threaten all shipping in the region—the Houthis have already stated that they will not determine the identity of cargo before striking—the decisive factor will be the entry of ships into Saudi ports. A new round of conflict could disrupt the supply of energy resources, raw materials, and food, leading to disruptions in international logistics and exacerbating shortages. Egypt, which relies on ships transiting the Suez Canal, will suffer significantly. For it, the risks of shipping in the Red Sea and the possible drop in traffic mean a decrease in foreign exchange earnings. Threat to Oil Supplies For Saudi Arabia, a naval blockade could be another crushing blow to oil exports. Riyadh pumps the bulk of its oil—approximately 70%—through the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Supplies go to India, China, and countries in Asia. If this route is blocked, the damage to the crude oil market will amount to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. Oil prices have already responded to the Houthi threats: on the morning of July 22, the price rose to $94.18 per barrel. Experts believe that in addition to supplies, oil refining is also suffering: compared to last year, its volumes have decreased by 5 million barrels per day. Moreover, the US, which has become the world's leading exporter of petroleum products, is already running out of reserves due to domestic demand. A decrease in fuel reserves could lead to a slowdown in the global economy, and major powers are already preparing for such a scenario. The route remains an important channel for the export of energy resources and raw materials for the Middle East, Asia, and Russia. Due to the increasing frequency of attacks on ships, some companies are opting to extend the route and bypass South Africa for cargo safety, significantly increasing costs and adding two weeks to delivery times. Subscribe to IMPORTANT | More news here
NOKpler Analyst94%match94¢+6%
Traffic has already fallen to 41 vessels/day (vs. 72/day peak in 2023, -43%) • Bab el-Mandeb crude loadings dropped 34% in just 2 weeks. @Kpler #OOTT
NOiranintl97%match94¢+6%
Data from MarineTraffic, a ship tracking system, showed that ships were still passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait as of Tuesday morning, July 20, despite the Iranian-backed Houthis announcing a “maritime blockade” of Saudi Arabia less than 24 hours earlier. The Saudi-led coalition said it would respond “forcefully” to the move and had begun implementing protective measures for passing ships. With tensions escalating in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab has become a key alternative route for Saudi Arabia’s oil exports.
YESIran Semi-Official Fars91%match7¢-100%
Oil at $91 as Bab al-Mandab closed After the return of two Pakistani ships carrying Saudi oil, the price of oil reached above $91 per barrel. Yesterday, the Yemenis announced that they would close Bab al-Mandab, and today, ship monitoring shows that two Pakistani ships that wanted to transport Saudi oil through Bab al-Mandab have changed their route. @Farana [in reply to: Arab sources: 2 tankers carrying Saudi oil have changed their route in the Red Sea and returned to the Suez Canal following the naval blockade imposed by Yemen. @Farsna]

Where does the news lean?

21YES13NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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