Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedDecember 31
Open$453Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES16¢
NO84¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESNews91%match14¢+14%
Reduction in maritime traffic in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab — Keller Company: Only two ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz and one ship passed through Bab al-Mandab yesterday
Breaking News Reuters: Shipping slows in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb after attack on Saudi tanker - Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday, compared to 20 the previous day
Reuters: Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait yesterday, Wednesday, compared to 20 ships the previous day. #AlMayadeen
Reuters: Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Wednesday, compared to 20 the previous day.
Al-Hadath correspondent Ahmed Bajato: The number of ships transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait has increased, and Djibouti authorities expect the Houthi threats to international navigation to end.
Bab el-Mandeb shipping rises amid hopes of resolution in US-Iran war
Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has plummeted to its lowest levels following Houthi attacks. Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has seen a sharp decline in recent months. On Sunday, only 11 cargo ships transited the strait. Last week, after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports, the number of ships dropped to 30 per day. Following the Houthi attack on two Saudi tankers, most companies have rerouted their vessels or postponed their Red Sea transits.
Live: Shipping through Ban el-Mandeb Strait, gateway to the Red Sea, falls as Houthis and Saudis trade fire, Kpler says
Yemeni blockade of Bab al-Mandab The latest maritime traffic tracking data published by Reuters shows that ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has reached its lowest level in recent months, with only 11 cargo ships passing through the waterway on Sunday. Ship traffic in Bab al-Mandab reached about 30 ships last week after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports; a trend that has now reached its lowest level in recent months with only 11 ships per day recorded. According to Reuters, concerns among shipping industry activists following the Yemeni attack on two Saudi oil tankers have caused most shipping companies to change their routes or postpone crossing the Red Sea. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: Yemen targets 3 Saudi oil tankers Al-Mayadeen: Yemeni armed forces have targeted 3 Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours. The number of Saudi ships that have been returned since last Monday has reached 16 ships. The source also reported that no Saudi oil tanker has passed through Bab al-Mandab since the beginning of the blockade on Yemen.
@Farsna]
Fresh Houthi announcement, which muddles the waters a bit. • • Paraphrasing: No closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait; blockade only targets "the Saudi side," but that leaves unclear whether it includes (or not) foreign vessels lifting Saudi crude (or only Saudi oil tankers).
AFP: At least nine ships have been turned away from passing through Bab al-Mandab after Saudi Arabia announced a blockade The ships have received warnings from Yemen that they will be targeted if they do not comply with the decision of the Yemeni armed forces.
AFP: At least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after Saudi Arabia announced a blockade AFP reported, citing shipping sources, that at least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after the Yemeni armed forces announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. According to the report, among the ships that have changed their route are tankers that were carrying oil from the Saudi port of Yanbu. AFP also reported, citing the International Chamber of Shipping, that the ships have received warnings from Yemen that they will be targeted if they do not comply with the decision of the Yemeni armed forces.
@TasnimNews
Live: A Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea could affect more than 3 percent of the global oil market. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a wateway at the southern end of the Red Sea, is not usually a critical chokepoint for oil. But Saudi Arabia has been leaning on it heavily since the start of the war with Iran because it is an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The country has been exporting more than 3.6 million barrels of oil and related fuels a day via Bab al-Mandeb in recent months, most of it to Asia, according to maritime data firm Kpler. Top destinations include South Korea, Japan and China.
A source close to the Houthis told Reuters that the group has deployed missiles and drones near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, preparing to attack ships. The source added that the decision on when to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait would be made by representatives of the Revolutionary Guard currently present in Yemen.
Where does the news lean?
86YES16NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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