Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 14% across 12 tracked outcomes, as of .

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December 31alarabiya_bn92%match83¢+4%
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is under the control of Yemeni government forces... What does this mean for energy markets?
October 31alarabiya_bn92%match94¢
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is under the control of Yemeni government forces... What does this mean for energy markets?
1,151 commercial ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in September Yemen's Ministry of Transport: 1,151 ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in September. International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues with high security and smoothness. isna.ir/xdXbvK @isna94
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 1,151 international commercial vessels transited Bab al-Mandab during the month of September - International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues safely and smoothly - The navigation ban targets exclusively vessels belonging to the Saudi enemy, while all international commercial vessels enjoy complete freedom and safety in transiting through Bab al-Mandab
September 30tvalmasirah95%match100¢
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 1,151 international commercial vessels transited Bab al-Mandab during the month of September International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues safely and smoothly The navigation ban targets exclusively vessels belonging to the Saudi enemy, while all international commercial vessels enjoy complete freedom and safety in transiting through Bab al-Mandab
Urgent | Ministry of Transport: 1,151 international commercial vessels transited Bab al-Mandab during September. International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues safely and smoothly. #Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 1,151 international commercial vessels crossed through Bab al-Mandab during the month of September.
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 1,151 International Commercial Vessels Crossed Bab al-Mandab in September The Ministry of Transport and Public Works recorded the passage of 1,151 international commercial vessels through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, both north and south, during September 2026. #Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
189 commercial ships pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days The Yemeni Ministry of Transport announced that 189 commercial ships have passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days, indicating the continued flow of international shipping through this strategic passage. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
October 31Houthi-Linked TV92%match92¢+2%
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 198 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 198 commercial ships crossed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international ships except for the ships of the Saudi enemy, which continues its blatant aggression and unjust and complete siege on the Yemeni people for 12 years.
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 198 commercial ships crossed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international ships except for the ships of the Saudi enemy, which continues its blatant aggression and unjust and complete siege on the Yemeni people for 12 years.
December 31nasr_amer193%match80¢+8%
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 198 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international vessels except for those of the Saudi enemy, which continues its blatant aggression and unjust blockade against the Yemeni people for 12 years.
October 31nasr_amer193%match92¢+2%
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 198 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international vessels except for those of the Saudi enemy, which continues its blatant aggression and unjust blockade against the Yemeni people for 12 years.
October 31Saba News Agency93%match92¢+2%
Urgent | Ministry of Transport: 198 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait north and south during the past five days. - The number of vessels passing north through the Bab al-Mandab Strait reached 104 commercial vessels, representing 52.5 percent of the total traffic. - 94 commercial vessels transited south, representing 47.5 percent. - Friday, September 25, saw the highest transit rate with 50 vessels, 30 of which headed north and 20 south. - We continue to lead monitoring efforts and exchange vital navigational data to ensure the safety and security of international navigation through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international vessels except for Saudi enemy vessels. #Saba_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Urgent | Ministry of Transport: 198 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait north and south during the past five days. - The number of vessels passing north through the Bab al-Mandab Strait reached 104 commercial vessels, representing 52.5 percent of the total traffic. - 94 commercial vessels transited south, representing 47.5 percent. - Friday, September 25, saw the highest transit rate with 50 vessels, 30 of which headed north and 20 south. - We continue to lead monitoring efforts and exchange vital navigational data to ensure the safety and security of international navigation through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international vessels except for Saudi enemy vessels. #Saba_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
An economic source in Sana'a confirmed to Al-Akhbar that maritime traffic in the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait is stable, indicating that this traffic constitutes 70% of its normal levels before the Strait of Hormuz crisis and before Ansar Allah imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20th. The source expects the number of ships transiting the strait to increase to more than 50 vessels and tankers daily if an agreement is reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and to reach 100% if Riyadh responds to Sana'a's demands and Saudi ships resume transiting Bab al-Mandab.
An economic source in Sana'a confirmed to Al-Akhbar that maritime traffic in the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait is stable, indicating that this traffic constitutes 70% of its normal levels before the Strait of Hormuz crisis and before Ansar Allah imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20th. The source expects the number of ships transiting the strait to increase to more than 50 vessels and tankers daily if an agreement is reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and to reach 100% if Riyadh responds to Sana'a's demands and Saudi ships resume transiting Bab al-Mandab.
October 31aljazeera.com92%match91¢+3%
Live: Data show 26 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday
December 31dpa.com92%match82¢+5%
Shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait continues
September 30News94%match99¢+1%
(Houthi's Yemen TV) Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait during the period from September 11 to 21.
September 30tvalmasirah97%match99¢+1%
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21 196 vessels transited Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 southbound over the 10-day period More than 40 commercial vessels of various types transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily The number of vessels transiting Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 since the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10 Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or an insecurity in the waterway
Urgent | Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21. - 196 vessels crossed Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 vessels southbound over 10 days. - More than 40 commercial vessels of various types cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily. - The number of vessels crossing Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 after the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10. - Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels. - The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or the insecurity of the waterway. #Saba_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Ministry of Transport: The number of ships crossing Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 after the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 ships during the period from September 1 to 10.
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait during the period from September 11 to 21.
Sanaa: More than 318 ships passed through Bab al-Mandab Minister of Transport of the Government of Sanaa: From September 10 to 18, more than 318 ships have passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait safely and securely. During this period, developments in the Red Sea have been followed with close attention. @YjcNewsChannel
September 15tvalmasirah93%match100¢
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: Approximately 35 ships have been crossing daily since September 10th #News
September 30News95%match96¢+4%
(Al Mayadeen) The Minister of Transport in the Sana'a government told Al Mayadeen: From September 10th to 18th, more than 318 ships passed safely through Bab al-Mandab.
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah 316 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 10 and 18 The average number of ships crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait was approximately 35 per day during the period from September 10 to 18
35 ships pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait per day A source in the Yemeni Ministry of Transport: From September 10 to 18, 316 ships have passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The average number of ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait during this period was about 35 ships per day. isna.ir/xdX6sZ @isna94

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

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