NATO downs another Russian droneSeptember 30

OpenVol$17KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 76% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES76¢
NO24¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

22 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESwelt.de93%match73¢+4%
Over Lithuania: Drone shot down by NATO fighter jets had explosives
YESsankei.com94%match71¢+7%
NATO aircraft shot down a drone that had entered Lithuania, the first such incident in the country; Italian Defense Minister speculates it may have originated in Russia.
YESapnews.com94%match77¢-1%
[UPDATE] NATO jets shoot down drone over Lithuania and Russian ship fires flares at Danish helicopter (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
YESapnews.com94%match78¢-3%
Live: NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace
YESapnews.com94%match75¢+1%
[UPDATE] NATO jets down drone over Lithuania and Russian ship fires flares at Danish helicopter (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
YESfaz.net91%match74¢+3%
Drone shot down: 30 minutes over Lithuania
YESdpa.com92%match73¢+4%
Air raid alert over Lithuania: NATO fighter jets shoot down drone
YESapnews.com96%match79¢-4%
[UPDATE] NATO jets down drone over Lithuania after alliance warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
YEScbc.ca93%match79¢-4%
NATO fighter jet shoots down drone over Lithuania
YESeuractiv.com93%match79¢-4%
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania as Denmark summons Russian envoy
YESnypost.com93%match74¢+3%
NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace after bloc warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine
YESnbcnews.com92%match75¢+1%
NATO jets down drone over Lithuania; Russian frigate fires flares at Danish helicopter
YESEstonia's Foreign Minister92%match77¢-1%
NATO acted swiftly and decisively after a drone entered Lithuanian airspace overnight, with NATO fighter jets detecting and shooting it down. • • This is a clear demonstration of Allied readiness to defend NATO territory and a reminder that Russia’s war against Ukraine directly impacts the security of us all. • • NATO must remain vigilant, united and ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.
YESapnews.com93%match76¢
NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace after bloc warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine
YESvedomosti.ru94%match76¢
A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Lithuania for the first time.
YESRussian Media95%match81¢-6%
NATO fighter jets shot down a UAV over Lithuania, local media reported, citing the National Crisis Management Center. The drone's wreckage is being collected, and the Skydas plan, which is used at accident sites when there is a risk of explosion, has been activated. There is also a high probability that the drone was armed with explosives, the report noted. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
YESlesechos.fr94%match81¢-6%
A drone shot down by NATO fighter jets over Lithuania
YESalarabytv94%match77¢-1%
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania
YESIran Semi-Official SNN96%match75¢+1%
NATO shoots down a drone over Lithuania Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center announced that a NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in the European country on Tuesday morning. A spokesperson for the center said that the drone, which had probably entered Lithuania from Belarus, was shot down near a village near Kaunas, Lithuania's second largest city in the south of the country. Previously, a warning had been issued about the entry of a drone into the Lithuanian capital Vilnius and its surrounding areas. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
YESlivesquawk92%match75¢+1%
Nato jets down drone that entered Lithuanian airspace
YESIran State News Agency96%match75¢+1%
NATO shoots down a drone over Lithuania Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center announced that a NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over the European country on Tuesday morning. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
YESReuters92%match33¢+130%
NATO Military Fighter Shot Down a Drone in Lithuanian Airspace -National Crisis Management Centre

Where does the news lean?

58YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans YES at 87% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

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