NATO downs another Russian drone

ResolvedOutcomes2as of

This hub tracks 2 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

September 30skynewsarabia93%match77¢+30%
A NATO fighter jet shot down an unidentified drone in Lithuania. #SocialSky
September 30welt.de93%match73¢+37%
Over Lithuania: Drone shot down by NATO fighter jets had explosives
September 30sankei.com94%match71¢+41%
NATO aircraft shot down a drone that had entered Lithuania, the first such incident in the country; Italian Defense Minister speculates it may have originated in Russia.
September 30apnews.com94%match77¢+30%
[UPDATE] NATO jets shoot down drone over Lithuania and Russian ship fires flares at Danish helicopter (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
September 30apnews.com94%match78¢+28%
Live: NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace
September 30apnews.com94%match75¢+33%
[UPDATE] NATO jets down drone over Lithuania and Russian ship fires flares at Danish helicopter (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
September 30faz.net91%match74¢+35%
Drone shot down: 30 minutes over Lithuania
September 30dpa.com92%match73¢+37%
Air raid alert over Lithuania: NATO fighter jets shoot down drone
September 30apnews.com96%match79¢+27%
[UPDATE] NATO jets down drone over Lithuania after alliance warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
September 30cbc.ca93%match79¢+27%
NATO fighter jet shoots down drone over Lithuania
September 30euractiv.com93%match79¢+27%
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania as Denmark summons Russian envoy
September 30nypost.com93%match74¢+35%
NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace after bloc warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine
September 30nbcnews.com92%match75¢+33%
NATO jets down drone over Lithuania; Russian frigate fires flares at Danish helicopter
NATO acted swiftly and decisively after a drone entered Lithuanian airspace overnight, with NATO fighter jets detecting and shooting it down. • • This is a clear demonstration of Allied readiness to defend NATO territory and a reminder that Russia’s war against Ukraine directly impacts the security of us all. • • NATO must remain vigilant, united and ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.
September 30apnews.com93%match76¢+32%
NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace after bloc warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine
September 30vedomosti.ru94%match76¢+32%
A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Lithuania for the first time.
September 30Russian Media95%match81¢+23%
NATO fighter jets shot down a UAV over Lithuania, local media reported, citing the National Crisis Management Center. The drone's wreckage is being collected, and the Skydas plan, which is used at accident sites when there is a risk of explosion, has been activated. There is also a high probability that the drone was armed with explosives, the report noted. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
September 30lesechos.fr94%match81¢+23%
A drone shot down by NATO fighter jets over Lithuania
September 30French Media94%match81¢+23%
What we know about the drone shot down over Lithuania by NATO aircraft
September 30Kan92%match81¢+23%
A NATO fighter jet intercepted a drone that had infiltrated Lithuania last night, the National Crisis Management Center in Vilnius reported. The drone, which apparently entered from Belarus, was shot down near the village of Partakunai in the south of the country, near Kaunas. @RamEliBrandts
September 30telegraph.co.uk93%match80¢+25%
Nato jets shoot down drone over Lithuania
September 30alarabytv94%match77¢+30%
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania
September 30Ukrinform Agency91%match77¢+30%
NATO fighters shot down a drone that violated Lithuanian airspace for the first time "Against the backdrop of increasing Russian aggression against Ukraine, such readiness is critically important for the entire region. Together with NATO allies, Lithuania will defend its airspace," said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. social networks Subscribe to Ukrinform | Facebook | X | YouTube
September 30bfmtv.com93%match77¢+30%
A drone "violated Lithuanian airspace" before being shot down by NATO aircraft overnight.
September 30franceinfo.fr92%match77¢+30%
Live: #LITHUANIA "A drone that violated Lithuanian airspace last night was quickly shot down by NATO fighter jets," wrote the Lithuanian president on the social network X, without specifying which country it belonged to...
September 30theguardian.com92%match77¢+30%
Nato jets shoot down drone violating Lithuania’s airspace
September 30money.udn.com92%match77¢+30%
Lithuanian airspace was violated by a drone; NATO warplanes scrambled and shot it down.
September 30france24.com91%match77¢+30%
War in Ukraine: NATO fighter jets shoot down a drone over Lithuania
September 30afp93%match77¢+30%
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over Lithuania, the Baltic state's president says Tuesday, in the latest security incident on the alliance's eastern flank during Russia's war with Ukraine • •
September 30afp.com95%match76¢+32%
Drone shot down by NATO over Lithuania

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.