Fed Decision in September?50+ bps decrease
Open$8.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters92%match100¢
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
FED DECISION: JPM'S MARKET PLAYBOOK • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, despite markets pricing a sizable chance of a surprise hike. • • Its base case is a hawkish hold (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold could lift stocks up to 1%, while a 25bp hike could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with tech stocks likely hit hardest.
UPCOMING U.S. ECONOMIC DATA COULD SPARK VOLATILITY IN U.S. TREASURYS, JULIUS BAER SAYS • • U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS COULD FALL SLIGHTLY IN SECOND HALF OF 2026 TOWARDS 4.30%, JULIUS BAER SAYS • • U.S. JOBS MARKET MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS RECENT DATA SUGGEST: JULIUS BAER • • JULIUS BAER FORECASTS FED TO KEEP RATES ON HOLD IN 2026, ECB TO RAISE RATES ONCE MORE -- INTERVIEW
BofA SEES THREE FED HIKES, FLIPS OUTLOOK • • Bank of America now expects three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, reversing its prior no-change forecast on strong data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh. Kalshi markets price a 25% chance of a July hike, 76% hold, and 2% cut, signaling continued uncertainty over the Fed path. •
Where does the news lean?
0YES10NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 77% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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