Fed Decision in September?No change
Open$15.4Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 52% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES52¢
NO49¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
JOBS SHOCK SHIFTS FED BETS • • The US unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. • • The weak report adds uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s September decision. • • Kalshi traders now price a 62% chance of no change, versus 34% for a 25bp hike. • • The Fed now faces a tougher balance between weaker jobs and persistent inflation. •
SEPTEMBER FED HIKE BACK IN PLAY • • The Fed held rates steady and offered no guidance, but markets viewed the meeting as dovish after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work. • • Despite the pause, three FOMC officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a September rate hike, versus 46% for no change. •
Warsh's early tone signals continuity, not change. No cuts expected this year according to CME's FedWatch. A hike toward the end of the year is still an open question. Neither this week's CPI print nor the recent weak labor report changes the Fed's stance, since they look past single-month trends.
BofA SEES THREE FED HIKES, FLIPS OUTLOOK • • Bank of America now expects three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, reversing its prior no-change forecast on strong data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh. Kalshi markets price a 25% chance of a July hike, 76% hold, and 2% cut, signaling continued uncertainty over the Fed path. •
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 76% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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