Fed Decision in September?

Washington's call to combat inflation increases the likelihood of an interest rate hike; the market estimates a 58% chance of a 25 basis point increase next month.

Washington's call to combat inflation increases the likelihood of an interest rate hike; the market estimates a 58% chance of a 25 basis point increase next month.

SEPTEMBER FED HIKE ODDS JUMP TO 49% ON POLYMARKET AFTER WARSH SPEECH • • Odds on Polymarket for the September FOMC decision: • • No change: 51% • 25 bps increase: 49% • • The hike side was at 30% earlier Friday and had traded between roughly 28% and 35% all week before the move. • • Warsh said in his first Jackson Hole keynote as chair that he would be "hard-pressed" to describe financial conditions as restrictive, that the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices, and that the summer's better-than-expected inflation data does not tell him underlying trends have meaningfully changed. • • Cleveland's Beth Hammack said earlier Friday it is time for the Fed to act with rate hikes and that inflation will end the year around 3%. She dissented on July 29 alongside Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan in favor of a quarter-point hike. The target range has been held at 3.50% to 3.75%. • • The FOMC meets September 15 to 16.

SEPTEMBER FED HIKE ODDS JUMP TO 49% ON POLYMARKET AFTER WARSH SPEECH • • Odds on Polymarket for the September FOMC decision: • • No change: 51% • 25 bps increase: 49% • • The hike side was at 30% earlier Friday and had traded between roughly 28% and 35% all week before the move. • • Warsh said in his first Jackson Hole keynote as chair that he would be "hard-pressed" to describe financial conditions as restrictive, that the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices, and that the summer's better-than-expected inflation data does not tell him underlying trends have meaningfully changed. • • Cleveland's Beth Hammack said earlier Friday it is time for the Fed to act with rate hikes and that inflation will end the year around 3%. She dissented on July 29 alongside Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan in favor of a quarter-point hike. The target range has been held at 3.50% to 3.75%. • • The FOMC meets September 15 to 16.

Live: Markets see 55% chance of September rate hike

*TRADERS PRICE IN ABOUT 50% CHANCE OF FED RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER

The Fed meeting minutes revealed that more than three people were in favor of raising interest rates, but the slowing economy reduced the probability of a September rate hike to 36%.

The Fed meeting minutes revealed that more than three people were in favor of raising interest rates, but the slowing economy reduced the probability of a September rate hike to 36%.

FED MINUTES: MOST BACKED HOLDING RATES IN JULY, SEVERAL FAVORED A HIKE • • - Many participants said higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall • - Some said financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target<b... FED MINUTES: MOST BACKED HOLDING RATES IN JULY, SEVERAL FAVORED A HIKE • • - Many participants said higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall • - Some said financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target • - A few who favored raising rates at the meeting judged doing so would help forestall the need for further hikes • - Various participants said tighter financial conditions over the inter-meeting period reflected strong growth and expectations the Fed would adopt a more restrictive stance before long • - Several said price increases over the past year were broad based across goods and services • - Almost all members agreed on retaining statement language affirming the FOMC "will deliver price stability" • • Staff projections showed an inflation forecast similar to June, with the economic outlook a "touch weaker." • • Chairman Warsh said six scheduled meetings per year, held roughly every two months, would allow more information to accumulate between meetings. No decisions were made and Warsh indicated no change to the 2026 schedule. • • The July 29 decision held the target range at 3.50-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 bps increase.

Fed September Rate Hike Odds Fall to 30.6% Ahead of FOMC Minutes: Bitcoin and Gold in Focus. • Expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen sharply as a run of softer U.S. economic data changes the market'

Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September

Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September

Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September

Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September

GOLDMAN: SEPTEMBER FED HIKE UNLIKELY • • Goldman Sachs says a September Fed hike is very unlikely, citing weaker jobs, inflation and consumer data. • • But prediction markets still expect tightening eventually. • • Kalshi prices a 49% chance of a hike before 2027, 70% before July 2027, and 74% before 2028. • • September looks unlikely, but markets aren’t calling the hiking cycle over. •

GOLDMAN: SEPTEMBER FED HIKE UNLIKELY • • Goldman Sachs says a September Fed hike is very unlikely, citing weaker jobs, inflation and consumer data. • • But prediction markets still expect tightening eventually. • • Kalshi prices a 49% chance of a hike before 2027, 70% before July 2027, and 74% before 2028. • • September looks unlikely, but markets aren’t calling the hiking cycle over. •

Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)

Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)

Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)

September Fed interest-rate increase is 'very unlikely,' Goldman Sachs says. • Soft economic data has Goldman Sachs doubting a September rate increase, offering good news for bitcoin bulls.

September Fed interest-rate increase is 'very unlikely,' Goldman Sachs says. • Soft economic data has Goldman Sachs doubting a September rate increase, offering good news for bitcoin bulls.

TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •

Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold

Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold

FED RATE HIKE ODDS BY SEPTEMBER MEETING FALL TO 31% ON POLYMARKET • • The contract is down 12 points on the day, with $2.19M in volume. • • The FOMC held the target range at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis' Kashkari and Dallas' Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 bps increase. • • The statement said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly reflecting supply shocks in sectors including energy, while activity is expanding at a solid pace and job gains have kept pace with the workforce.

*TRADERS KEEP BETS ON 45% CHANCE OF SEPTEMBER FED RATE HIKE

*TRADERS KEEP BETS ON 45% CHANCE OF SEPTEMBER FED RATE HIKE

Live: After today’s jobs report, investors are betting the Fed will keep interest rates the same at their next meeting in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the board keeping rates where they are jumped to 56 percent from 45 percent yesterday. For now, investors are still expecting a hike in October, but those odds dropped to 47 percent from 52 percent yesterday.

JOBS SHOCK SHIFTS FED BETS • • The US unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. • • The weak report adds uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s September decision. • • Kalshi traders now price a 62% chance of no change, versus 34% for a 25bp hike. • • The Fed now faces a tougher balance between weaker jobs and persistent inflation. •

US media reports indicate the Fed is "prepared to raise interest rates as early as September"... This could force them to make a difficult decision amid Trump's calls for interest rate cuts.