Fed Decision in September?25 bps increase
Open$13.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 47% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES47¢
NO54¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Fed meeting minutes revealed that more than three people were in favor of raising interest rates, but the slowing economy reduced the probability of a September rate hike to 36%.
Fed September Rate Hike Odds Fall to 30.6% Ahead of FOMC Minutes: Bitcoin and Gold in Focus. • Expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen sharply as a run of softer U.S. economic data changes the market'
GOLDMAN: SEPTEMBER FED HIKE UNLIKELY • • Goldman Sachs says a September Fed hike is very unlikely, citing weaker jobs, inflation and consumer data. • • But prediction markets still expect tightening eventually. • • Kalshi prices a 49% chance of a hike before 2027, 70% before July 2027, and 74% before 2028. • • September looks unlikely, but markets aren’t calling the hiking cycle over. •
September Fed interest-rate increase is 'very unlikely,' Goldman Sachs says. • Soft economic data has Goldman Sachs doubting a September rate increase, offering good news for bitcoin bulls.
Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold
FED RATE HIKE ODDS BY SEPTEMBER MEETING FALL TO 31% ON POLYMARKET • • The contract is down 12 points on the day, with $2.19M in volume. • • The FOMC held the target range at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis' Kashkari and Dallas' Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 bps increase. • • The statement said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly reflecting supply shocks in sectors including energy, while activity is expanding at a solid pace and job gains have kept pace with the workforce.
Live: After today’s jobs report, investors are betting the Fed will keep interest rates the same at their next meeting in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the board keeping rates where they are jumped to 56 percent from 45 percent yesterday. For now, investors are still expecting a hike in October, but those odds dropped to 47 percent from 52 percent yesterday.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musallam called for a gradual approach to raising interest rates, arguing that an early move would be less costly for the economy than resorting to a more aggressive tightening later if inflation remains above the target level. In an interview with the Financial Times, Musallam said that this week's sell-off of US Treasury bonds reflects the Fed's need to bolster its credibility in combating inflation. He noted that he would have preferred a 25-basis-point rate hike at the last meeting, despite the central bank's decision to hold rates steady. He added that raising rates gradually now could spare the economy from more drastic measures in the future if inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. His comments came after a meeting where three members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented, demanding an immediate rate hike due to concerns about continued inflationary pressures. Following the meeting, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury note rose to over 5.2%, its highest level in years. For 19 years, markets have raised the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting to around 67%. #Arabic_Business
UPCOMING U.S. ECONOMIC DATA COULD SPARK VOLATILITY IN U.S. TREASURYS, JULIUS BAER SAYS • • U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS COULD FALL SLIGHTLY IN SECOND HALF OF 2026 TOWARDS 4.30%, JULIUS BAER SAYS • • U.S. JOBS MARKET MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS RECENT DATA SUGGEST: JULIUS BAER • • JULIUS BAER FORECASTS FED TO KEEP RATES ON HOLD IN 2026, ECB TO RAISE RATES ONCE MORE -- INTERVIEW
BofA SEES THREE FED HIKES, FLIPS OUTLOOK • • Bank of America now expects three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, reversing its prior no-change forecast on strong data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh. Kalshi markets price a 25% chance of a July hike, 76% hold, and 2% cut, signaling continued uncertainty over the Fed path. •
Where does the news lean?
15YES11NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 53% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed Decision in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.