Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Open27as of
Market pricing makes Steve Witkoff the favorite at 33% across 27 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Kazem Gharibabadi told RIA Novosti news agency: "America knows what conditions and demands must be met; as soon as these conditions and demands are met, the Islamic Republic will take the necessary measures in turn."
As Washington continues to exert maximum pressure on Tehran through a campaign of economic isolation and a naval blockade, US President Donald Trump said it is difficult to find someone in Iran to take responsibility for negotiations.
US President Donald Trump said that the Islamic Republic now does not even have a leader or senior officials, and Washington is having trouble identifying the negotiating party in Iran. “That’s the problem,” Trump said. “Maybe we went too far in dealing with their leaders, because we don’t even know who we’re dealing with anymore.” He also said, “Nobody wants to be president of Iran. They’re calling out names one by one and asking, ‘Who wants to be president? Nobody wants to. I don’t want to.’” Trump added, referring to the difficulty of finding a negotiating party: “To be honest, we’ve had a big problem figuring out who we should be negotiating with.” The US President continued, “I think we went too far. We could have stopped at the first level. Going to level two and level two and a half was probably an exaggeration.”
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
US President Donald Trump said that the Islamic Republic now does not even have a leader or senior officials, and Washington is having trouble identifying the negotiating party in Iran. “That’s the problem,” Trump said. “Maybe we went too far in dealing with their leaders, because we don’t even know who we’re dealing with anymore.” He also said, “Nobody wants to be president of Iran. They’re calling out names one by one and asking, ‘Who wants to be president? Nobody wants to. I don’t want to.’” Trump added, referring to the difficulty of finding a negotiating party: “To be honest, we’ve had a big problem figuring out who we should be negotiating with.” The US President continued, “I think we went too far. We could have stopped at the first level. Going to level two and level two and a half was probably an exaggeration.”
"No solution will be possible as long as Washington clings to its unilateral stance," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said, ruling out the success of negotiations with the US under "pressures and threats."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reveals a forthcoming meeting with the United States through intermediaries, and Russian President Vladimir Putin expresses Moscow's readiness to help Tehran end the conflict with Washington.
Araghchi: Negotiations with Washington continue through intermediaries... Tehran prepares to respond to US comments on the "7-day plan" within days Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirms to ISNA news agency that negotiations and the exchange of messages with the US through intermediaries are ongoing. Abbas Araghchi explains that Tehran presented its proposed diplomatic initiative under the title "7-Day Plan." Araghchi says that Iran has listened to the US viewpoints and comments on the plan. The Iranian minister expects to send the official response to the US side within days, emphasizing that communication channels remain open.
Political analyst Mossadeghpour: Araqchi's movements in New York did not cross any red lines, and his meetings with the Americans were coordinated by Mojtaba Khamenei. The parliamentary inquiry request was a unilateral move by a hardline deputy. Al-Arabiya anchor: Questioning the foreign minister raises questions, given that the delegation has a full mandate to revive the diplomatic track, and the Revolutionary Guard has asserted that negotiations could be another face of war to protect national interests.
Guterres and Ishaq Dar in Islamabad; Consultations on Pakistan's Diplomatic Efforts
⠀
The UN Secretary-General, who is on an official visit to Pakistan, met with the country's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. The two sides reviewed the latest developments in the Middle East and discussed the Islamabad talks between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, as well as advancing diplomacy in the region. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Pezeshkian: Negotiating with an enemy that engages in assassination, sanctions, threats, and breaks promises is pointless. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed on Monday that negotiating with an enemy that engages in assassination, sanctions, pressure, and threats daily, and breaks promises, is pointless. He emphasized that the Iranian people do not accept such an approach.
#Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
The Latest Round of U.S.-Iran Talks Failed. Tehran Now Says Conversations are Meaningless.. • "Every time we come to the negotiating table, war is immediately imposed on us," Masoud Pezeshkian said.
On Monday, October 4, during a meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the head of government in the Islamic Republic, Masoud Pezeshkian said that the United States is not seeking dialogue and that its goal is to “overthrow the Islamic Republic.” He added: “Negotiations are meaningless with an enemy that terrorizes, sanctions, pressures, and threatens every day and is a treaty-breaker.” Pezeshkian said: “Our problem with the United States is that every time we negotiate, war is immediately imposed on us.” He added: “They have attacked us three times after negotiations, and this shows that they are not seeking dialogue, but rather their goal is to overthrow the Islamic Republic.” He also said: “The Islamic Republic has repeatedly proven its honesty in the field of nuclear activities, and the most monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency in the world has been related to Iran.”
Iran is working to increase the range of its missiles and drones, a Defense Ministry spokesman said. "During this conflict (with the United States - Ed.), we came to the conclusion that we absolutely need to increase the range of our missiles, and we are now working to achieve this goal," he said. • US-Iran talks remain at an impasse. On September 28, Marco Rubio demanded that the Iranian delegation immediately leave the United States after the collapse of negotiations, and Qatar's attempts to achieve a compromise also failed. • More IZ RU news in MAX
Iran is working to increase the range of its missiles and drones, a Defense Ministry spokesman said. "During this conflict (with the US - Ed.), we came to the conclusion that we absolutely need to increase the range of our missiles, and we are now working to achieve this goal," he said. US-Iran talks remain at an impasse. On September 28, Marco Rubio demanded that the Iranian delegation immediately leave the US after the talks failed, and Qatar's attempts to reach a compromise also failed. More IZ RU news in MAX
US President Donald Trump said at a campaign rally in Alabama that he currently does not know who he should negotiate with in the Islamic Republic to reach an agreement.
Washington allegedly now has no one to negotiate with in Iran due to the lack of contenders for the post of political leader of the country, Trump stated. "I ask, who can I talk to in Iran? And the answer is silence." Previously, Trump stated that after the strikes on Iran, the possibility of reaching an agreement with Tehran became more difficult due to the deaths of several high-ranking representatives of the Iranian leadership. Following the death of Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was declared Supreme Leader of Iran. He has not appeared publicly since his election, but his press service has issued statements in his name.
Axios reported on Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the matter, that Qatari mediators’ efforts to create a diplomatic opening between the United States and the Islamic Republic have made little progress, and that neither side is willing to back down. According to Axios, the impasse has raised the possibility of renewed military conflict. U.S. officials believe that U.S. President Donald Trump may order the resumption of military operations after the midterm elections. The two sources said that Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York on Monday and presented a two-page proposal. The plan was aimed at addressing Tehran’s demand for an end to the U.S. naval blockade and Washington’s demand for nuclear concessions. Al-Thawadi then met with Trump’s envoy, Jared Kushner, and U.S. officials in Washington. US Vice President JD Vance was also present for part of the meeting. One source said: “The negotiations have stalled. The Iranians want things that the US cannot accept and the US thinks it is winning, so it sees no need to compromise.”
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf escalates his rhetoric against Donald Trump, threatening a swift and harsh response, warning him against any action, and brandishing the oil and Strait of Hormuz card.
FWD from Mehr International: Grossi: No formal negotiations between the US and Iran are currently underway Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, announced in an interview with the RIA Novosti news agency on Tuesday that there are currently no full-fledged (full and formal) negotiations between the US and Iran, although the parties have maintained their informal contacts; contacts that could lead to the resumption of talks. In response to a question about US efforts to initiate talks with Iran through intermediaries, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency said: "Currently, there is no negotiation process in the true sense of the word." mehrnews.com/x3dbX7 @MehrnewsIntl
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: —No one will be able to sell oil in a region where we don't sell our oil. —No infrastructure will be secure unless our security is guaranteed. —The Americans must realize that the era of intimidation and threats aimed at destroying this civilized nation is over. —We will not back down in the face of threats or sanctions, and we will respond to any aggression with harsh, painful, decisive, and swift reprisals.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told RIA Novosti that there are no formal, full-fledged negotiations underway between the United States and the Islamic Republic yet, but the two sides have maintained informal contacts.
Assaf Rosenzweig, a senior government official in one of the countries involved in the talks, said that Iran would be willing to compromise on its nuclear program, and was even close to doing so in talks with Vice President J.D. Vance, but in return it demands explicit guarantees that Israel will not attack it again after an agreement is reached with the US.
US President Donald Trump says he expects talks with Iran to resume in the coming week, despite his rejection of a truce proposal recently put forward by Tehran •
Donald Trump expects talks with Tehran in the coming week. He stated this in an interview with the Axios portal. The American president also commented on Iran's seven-day plan to open the Strait of Hormuz. "They want a deal, but this is not the deal I want. They've overestimated their capabilities." At the same time, the US president did not rule out the possibility of resuming strikes on Iran, adding that he thinks about it constantly.
Donald Trump said he expects talks with Iran next week.
Donald Trump said he expects talks with Iran next week More IZ RU news in MAX
Abbas Araqchi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, says that despite Donald Trump's public announcement of rejecting Tehran's seven-day offer, Washington's official response has not yet been conveyed to the Islamic Republic through mediators. Referring to Donald Trump's different statements in recent days, he added: "Unfortunately, many contradictory statements are being heard from the US President." Araqchi said that Tehran will wait for the mediators to announce Washington's "definitive opinion" and then decide on the next steps. @VahidHeadline
On Sunday, 25 October 2021, in an interview with NBC News' "Meet the Press" program, Araqchi said in response to a report about the possibility of resuming US attacks after the country's midterm elections: "We are fully prepared to resume the war. We will resist any new aggression, even if it leads to an apocalyptic war." He also added: "At the same time, we are ready for diplomacy. The choice is with President Trump.”
@VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: — The Mecca Alliance could represent a positive step towards Muslims sitting side by side and achieving Islamic unity instead of fighting each other. — We do not trust the American side, and we do not know on what basis an agreement can be reached. — The United States is the aggressor in the war, and Iran has not attacked any country for nearly two hundred years.
Pezeshkian: Iran no longer trusts talks with America Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that his country no longer trusts talks with Washington due to its repeated attacks and continued sanctions after every round of negotiations. He indicated that Pakistan and Qatar are currently mediating in this matter and conveying Tehran's messages to Washington.
#Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Pezeshkian: We are ready to help resolve the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed that there is no trust in direct negotiations with Washington due to the repeated attacks and imposition of sanctions after each round of talks. He stressed that Middle East security must be achieved through regional cooperation among the countries of the region, without the need for an "external policeman."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.