Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Marco Rubio
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Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO92¢
as of
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10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Iran is working to increase the range of its missiles and drones, a Defense Ministry spokesman said. "During this conflict (with the United States - Ed.), we came to the conclusion that we absolutely need to increase the range of our missiles, and we are now working to achieve this goal," he said. • US-Iran talks remain at an impasse. On September 28, Marco Rubio demanded that the Iranian delegation immediately leave the United States after the collapse of negotiations, and Qatar's attempts to achieve a compromise also failed. • More IZ RU news in MAX
Iran is working to increase the range of its missiles and drones, a Defense Ministry spokesman said. "During this conflict (with the US - Ed.), we came to the conclusion that we absolutely need to increase the range of our missiles, and we are now working to achieve this goal," he said. US-Iran talks remain at an impasse. On September 28, Marco Rubio demanded that the Iranian delegation immediately leave the US after the talks failed, and Qatar's attempts to reach a compromise also failed. More IZ RU news in MAX
Live: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters outside at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York, described the indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian officials held on the sidelines of the General Assembly on Tuesday, telling reporters that the American negotiators had focused on trying to persuade Iran to end any ambition to develop a nuclear weapon.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in response to a reporter's question about the meeting with Islamic Republic officials, said: "It was a face-to-face meeting, but I can't say who the mediator was."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Talks with the Iranian delegation yesterday were "productive"... and Iran must choose whether it is a state or a revolution.
Marco Rubio: Another meeting with Iranians will be held tonight
Marco Rubio: Tuesday's talks on Iran were largely an exchange of ideas and messages.
FWD from Mehr International: Rubio: No meeting with Iranian officials planned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Tuesday: No meeting with Iranian officials is currently planned, but this situation may change. The US Secretary of State, who is trying to keep the price of oil and energy carriers low in the world using advertising tools, claimed: Gasoline prices are currently high, but if Iran had nuclear weapons, these prices would triple! mehrnews.com/x3d7VM @MehrnewsIntl
Rubio: We are open to meeting with the Iranians in New York... and oil prices will be higher if Tehran possesses a nuclear weapon. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: We are open to meeting with the Iranians on the sidelines of the UN meetings. Oil prices will be higher if Iran possesses a nuclear weapon. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing daily, and 70% of oil flow has resumed. The vast majority of ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz without being attacked.
Marco Rubio rules out further talks with Iran "as long as they persist in wanting to acquire" nuclear weapons
Where does the news lean?
11YES6NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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