Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Abbas Araghchi
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Odds now
The market prices a 31% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES31¢
NO70¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Seyed Abbas Araqchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, in an interview with ShahrAra News: What was announced at the end of the war and in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was the end of the war. The US violated the Memorandum of Understanding and the fighting resumed. We did not have anything called a ceasefire that now needs to be extended; we had the end of the war, which has now taken on a new status. What was discussed about sixty days was actually sixty days of time to negotiate in order to reach a final agreement, and there is basically no such thing as a ceasefire extension. The mediators, both Qatar and Pakistan, are exchanging messages and are in contact with us, but this does not mean negotiations. We have not yet made a decision to restart negotiations with the US. Our negotiations with Oman are ongoing, but that is a completely separate discussion; A technical discussion related to determining the sea routes of the Strait of Hormuz for ship traffic. The routes that previously existed are no longer functional and a new route must be defined. We are currently designing a temporary route that will become the final route in the next stages. This is a technical work that is being carried out between experts from the two countries and the armed forces are also involved; after all, they are the main opinion leaders on this matter. We may reach a conclusion soon, but it is important to emphasize that these negotiations on the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz are two completely separate discussions. This is a technical discussion related to determining the sea route. Once this route is determined, whether ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will resume or not is another matter and depends on the fulfillment of other conditions that the United States must adhere to in order for this to happen. @s_a_araghchi
Abbas Araghchi, the Islamic Republic's Foreign Minister, said that Tehran has not yet made a decision to resume talks with the United States and that the exchange of messages through Qatar and Pakistan does not mean the start of negotiations. According to ISNA, Araghchi said that what was stated in the Islamabad memorandum of understanding was an "end of the war," not a ceasefire. According to him, the United States violated this understanding and the fighting resumed; therefore, "there was no such thing as a 60-day ceasefire that needed to be extended." He added that the Islamic Republic's negotiations with Oman are continuing, but these talks are a separate issue. Araghchi also said that the previous paths are no longer effective and a new path must be defined to continue the talks.
Seyyed Abbas Araghchi: No decision has been made yet to resume negotiations with the US Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran: What was stated in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was an "end of the war" and not a ceasefire. The US violated this Memorandum of Understanding and the fighting resumed. Therefore, there was no such thing as a 60-day ceasefire that needed to be extended. The mediators, both Qatar and Pakistan, are exchanging messages and are in contact with us, but this does not mean negotiations at all. No decision has been made yet to resume negotiations with the US. The paths that existed before are no longer effective and a new path must be defined. We are currently designing a temporary path that will become the final path in the next stages.
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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