Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Donald Trump
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The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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NO95¢
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US President Donald Trump said that the Islamic Republic now does not even have a leader or senior officials, and Washington is having trouble identifying the negotiating party in Iran. “That’s the problem,” Trump said. “Maybe we went too far in dealing with their leaders, because we don’t even know who we’re dealing with anymore.” He also said, “Nobody wants to be president of Iran. They’re calling out names one by one and asking, ‘Who wants to be president? Nobody wants to. I don’t want to.’” Trump added, referring to the difficulty of finding a negotiating party: “To be honest, we’ve had a big problem figuring out who we should be negotiating with.” The US President continued, “I think we went too far. We could have stopped at the first level. Going to level two and level two and a half was probably an exaggeration.”
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US President Donald Trump said at a campaign rally in Alabama that he currently does not know who he should negotiate with in the Islamic Republic to reach an agreement.
Trump Rejects Iran's Offer Wall Street Journal Claims: Donald Trump has rejected Iran's offer for a seven-day ceasefire and has told his aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections, US officials said. @IRIBNEWS_COM
TRUMP REJECTS IRAN’S HORMUZ PEACE PLAN, EXPECTS BOMBING COULD RESUME AFTER MIDTERMS — WSJ • • President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting within seven days, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing unnamed U.S. officials. Trump has told aides he expects U.S. bombing of Iran could resume after November’s midterm elections, according to the report. Iran says it is still awaiting an official U.S. response. • • Why markets care: renewed military escalation threatens Hormuz energy flows, oil prices and global inflation.
Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace plan and allowed the resumption of bombing, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing sources. However, according to the publication's sources, the American president's views could change in the coming weeks, as well as under the influence of the election results. The plan proposed by Tehran assumes that the United States will lift the naval blockade, unfreeze Iranian assets, and lift oil sanctions. In return, Iran commits to opening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
In an interview with India Today, Masoud Pezzekian, in response to the question of whether Tehran is ready for direct talks with Donald Trump without preconditions, said that we cannot make such a decision at the moment because our leader has been killed.
The US administration is betting on military and economic pressure to deplete Tehran's capabilities... and a new escalation message from Trump: When will the Iranians revolt? ======= US President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that he is not seeking to force Iran to negotiate. US rejection of a new agreement with Tehran was embodied in Trump's declaration of his lack of interest in what he described as a "worthless agreement." Analysts considered Trump's question, "When will the Iranians revolt?" to add an internal dimension to the pressure on Tehran. The White House's bet on continuing military and economic pressure has emerged as an alternative to expediting negotiations.
The US administration is betting on military and economic pressure to deplete Tehran's capabilities... and a new escalation message from Trump: When will the Iranians revolt? ======= US President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that he is not seeking to force Iran to negotiate. US rejection of a new agreement with Tehran was embodied in Trump's declaration of his lack of interest in what he described as a "worthless agreement." Analysts considered Trump's question, "When will the Iranians revolt?" to add an internal dimension to the pressure on Tehran. The White House's bet on continuing military and economic pressure has emerged as an alternative to expediting negotiations.
Donald Trump announced that he no longer seeks an agreement with Iran to end the armed conflict. He wrote this on his Truth Social account. On August 31, Trump threatened to "wipe out Iran as a country." He was commenting on a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which warned that the US would "regret its new attacks."
In an interview with Fox News correspondent Terry Youngsat, US President Donald Trump issued a clear warning to Tehran following the latest US attacks on the Islamic Republic. Referring to Iran's possible response, Trump said: "If they retaliate, they will be targeted much harder; and if they do it again, they will cease to exist." He strongly criticized Tehran's actions, adding: "They will not stop; they are behaving crazy and stupidly." The US President went on to detail the recent attacks, saying: "They were trying to rebuild their radars because they had no vision; we waited until they were almost finished building them and then we shot them down." Trump also expressed complete distrust of the path of diplomacy with the Iranian government, emphasizing: "I believe that an agreement with them is not worth even the paper it is written on. "We gave them a lot of chances."
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White House Deputy Spokesperson Anna Kelly told Al-Sharq on Wednesday that no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic are underway or planned. She made the remarks in response to a question about the US government's message to Tehran conveyed by the Qatari Prime Minister. US President Donald Trump also announced an hour ago in an interview with Al Jazeera that there is no specific timetable for resuming talks with the Islamic Republic and that he is in no hurry to do so. Trump said: "Both US military strikes and economic pressure against the Islamic Republic are effective." He added that the US has achieved a great victory in the war and that Iran's economy is collapsing.
Trump: I'm "in no rush" about talks with Iran; I have no timetable for it US President Donald Trump has told Al Jazeera that economic and military measures are "effective" and he is "in no rush" about talks with Iran.
FWD from Mehr International: Trump: I'm in no hurry to negotiate with Iran In an interview with Al Jazeera, US President Donald Trump claimed that both economic and military measures are effective and that he is in no hurry to negotiate with Iran. In response to an Al Jazeera reporter's question about Iran, he added: "There is no specific timetable for deciding to return to the negotiating table and I am in no hurry." mehrnews.com/x3cTNP @MehrnewsIntl
Trump: "I'm in no rush" about talks with Iran Donald Trump has told Al Jazeera that economic and military measures are "effective" and that he is "in no rush" about talks with Iran. In response to questions from Al Jazeera correspondent Tania Nouri, Trump added: "I have no timetable; I'm in no rush." / Choice
Al Arabiya Channel: Donald Trump has ordered negotiations with the Islamic Republic to be suspended for several weeks, and there is a possibility that this suspension will be extended.
Trump to Axios: Massive amount of oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz US President Donald Trump revealed to Axios that a massive amount of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz Trump added to Axios that "negotiating with the Iranians right now is a waste of time" The US president had already decided to cut off any current talks with Tehran, as reported by CNN yesterday Trump previously confirmed that he was not seeking to extend the 60-day deadline stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding #From_the_Event
Trump to Axios: Massive amount of oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz US President Donald Trump revealed to Axios that a massive amount of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz Trump added to Axios that "negotiating with the Iranians right now is a waste of time" The US president had already decided to cut off any current talks with Tehran, as reported by CNN yesterday Trump previously confirmed that he was not seeking to extend the 60-day deadline stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding From Al Arabiya
Donald Trump has changed his approach to Iran, abandoning negotiations and focusing on gradually increasing pressure on Tehran, CNN reports, citing a US official. According to the channel, the US president has instructed senior administration officials to stop negotiations with Iran. "White House officials recently told political allies they are changing their strategy" - moving from "hit it as soon as possible" to "strangle it" over time," the article says. Previously, Trump has repeatedly stated that diplomatic efforts with Tehran are progressing and a new agreement can be reached. The day before, the US president announced that there are no contacts with the Iranian side. More news about the conflict in the Middle East - on our channel in "Max".
Washington informs allies it is changing its strategy toward Tehran... US official tells CNN: Trump instructed his top envoys to halt any negotiations with Iran A US official revealed to CNN that President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure at Iran's lack of willingness to implement his demands, coinciding with the expiration of the 60-day deadline stipulated in the "Memorandum of Understanding." The US official told CNN that Trump instructed his top envoys to halt any negotiations with Iran. The US official confirmed that the United States is moving toward gradually strangling Iran and imposing crushing sanctions. According to the US official's statements to CNN, Washington informed its allies that it is changing its strategy toward Iran. The US official confirmed that Trump wants a clear signal from Iran's leaders of their readiness to conclude an agreement. From Al Arabiya
A White House correspondent quoted an American official on the X Network as saying: "Donald Trump's post on Truth Social about suspending talks with the Islamic Republic until they are ready to make an agreement means that he has canceled negotiations with Tehran for the foreseeable future."
Live: #MIDDLE_EAST Donald Trump stated on his Truth Social network that no discussions with Iran were currently taking place, nor were any planned...
*US President Donald Trump:* There are no talks or discussions taking place, or planned, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The naval blockade remains in full effect. The Strait of Hormuz is open and operational. All naval mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
US President Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network on Tuesday, August 17: "There are no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic, and no negotiations or talks are planned."
He added: "The naval blockade remains in full force, the Strait of Hormuz is open and active, and all naval mines have been collected or detonated."
Where does the news lean?
41YES77NO110neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 86% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
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What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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