Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Donald Trump
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The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO91¢
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21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
White House Deputy Spokesperson Anna Kelly told Al-Sharq on Wednesday that no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic are underway or planned. She made the remarks in response to a question about the US government's message to Tehran conveyed by the Qatari Prime Minister. US President Donald Trump also announced an hour ago in an interview with Al Jazeera that there is no specific timetable for resuming talks with the Islamic Republic and that he is in no hurry to do so. Trump said: "Both US military strikes and economic pressure against the Islamic Republic are effective." He added that the US has achieved a great victory in the war and that Iran's economy is collapsing.
Trump: I'm "in no rush" about talks with Iran; I have no timetable for it US President Donald Trump has told Al Jazeera that economic and military measures are "effective" and he is "in no rush" about talks with Iran.
FWD from Mehr International: Trump: I'm in no hurry to negotiate with Iran In an interview with Al Jazeera, US President Donald Trump claimed that both economic and military measures are effective and that he is in no hurry to negotiate with Iran. In response to an Al Jazeera reporter's question about Iran, he added: "There is no specific timetable for deciding to return to the negotiating table and I am in no hurry." mehrnews.com/x3cTNP @MehrnewsIntl
Trump: Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously wounded, but I don't believe he was killed... and the Iranian currency is now almost worthless US President Donald Trump: Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously wounded in his left side, arm, and leg, but I don't believe he was killed. The Iranians are not the most honest group to make a deal with, and our military's performance has been amazing. We will achieve victory very soon. Last night we destroyed 22 boats and are monitoring Iranian movements in the blockade zone. Many of their soldiers are not being paid. Iran has snipers targeting protesters from rooftops, and it's difficult to go out and demonstrate with these people around. Trump: The Iranian currency is now almost worthless, and oil prices are falling very quickly. We cannot allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, and we have succeeded in establishing absolute and real dominance over The country CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Russia could yield important results From the event
Trump: "I'm in no rush" about talks with Iran Donald Trump has told Al Jazeera that economic and military measures are "effective" and that he is "in no rush" about talks with Iran. In response to questions from Al Jazeera correspondent Tania Nouri, Trump added: "I have no timetable; I'm in no rush." / Choice
Al Arabiya Channel: Donald Trump has ordered negotiations with the Islamic Republic to be suspended for several weeks, and there is a possibility that this suspension will be extended.
Trump to Axios: Massive amount of oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz US President Donald Trump revealed to Axios that a massive amount of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz Trump added to Axios that "negotiating with the Iranians right now is a waste of time" The US president had already decided to cut off any current talks with Tehran, as reported by CNN yesterday Trump previously confirmed that he was not seeking to extend the 60-day deadline stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding #From_the_Event
Trump to Axios: Massive amount of oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz US President Donald Trump revealed to Axios that a massive amount of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz Trump added to Axios that "negotiating with the Iranians right now is a waste of time" The US president had already decided to cut off any current talks with Tehran, as reported by CNN yesterday Trump previously confirmed that he was not seeking to extend the 60-day deadline stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding From Al Arabiya
US President Donald Trump: No negotiations with Iran at the moment, but that may happen at some point.
US President Donald Trump: No negotiations with Iran at the moment, but that may happen at some point.
Donald Trump suspends talks with Iran; former Iranian president warns against "wasting the opportunity"
CNN reported that Donald Trump has made a fundamental change in his approach to war by ordering the cessation of any negotiations with the Islamic Republic and has distanced himself from the path of diplomacy. CNN wrote that after weeks of expressing optimism about achieving a positive development in relations with Tehran, Trump has finally concluded that these efforts have not been successful and has now adopted a new approach. Interview with Amir Giti, a member of the editorial board of Iran International
Donald Trump has changed his approach to Iran, abandoning negotiations and focusing on gradually increasing pressure on Tehran, CNN reports, citing a US official. According to the channel, the US president has instructed senior administration officials to stop negotiations with Iran. "White House officials recently told political allies they are changing their strategy" - moving from "hit it as soon as possible" to "strangle it" over time," the article says. Previously, Trump has repeatedly stated that diplomatic efforts with Tehran are progressing and a new agreement can be reached. The day before, the US president announced that there are no contacts with the Iranian side. More news about the conflict in the Middle East - on our channel in "Max".
CNN reported that US President Donald Trump has changed his strategy from trying to reach a quick agreement to gradually increasing pressure on Tehran by halting talks with the Islamic Republic. According to CNN, Trump has ordered senior administration officials to halt talks with the Islamic Republic and that no talks will be held until Tehran shows new signs of readiness to accept Washington's demands. He also announced that no talks with the Islamic Republic are underway or planned. CNN quoted US officials as saying that the White House is on the verge of imposing new and heavy sanctions on the Islamic Republic and is pursuing a strategy of "gradual increase in pressure." The report also noted Washington's concerns about a possible agreement between the Islamic Republic and Oman on managing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and wrote that the Trump administration opposes any agreement that would allow Tehran to control or collect fees from ships. American officials believe that economic pressure will eventually force the Islamic Republic to accept Washington's terms.
Washington informs allies it is changing its strategy toward Tehran... US official tells CNN: Trump instructed his top envoys to halt any negotiations with Iran A US official revealed to CNN that President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure at Iran's lack of willingness to implement his demands, coinciding with the expiration of the 60-day deadline stipulated in the "Memorandum of Understanding." The US official told CNN that Trump instructed his top envoys to halt any negotiations with Iran. The US official confirmed that the United States is moving toward gradually strangling Iran and imposing crushing sanctions. According to the US official's statements to CNN, Washington informed its allies that it is changing its strategy toward Iran. The US official confirmed that Trump wants a clear signal from Iran's leaders of their readiness to conclude an agreement. #From_the_Event
Washington informs allies it is changing its strategy toward Tehran... US official tells CNN: Trump instructed his top envoys to halt any negotiations with Iran A US official revealed to CNN that President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure at Iran's lack of willingness to implement his demands, coinciding with the expiration of the 60-day deadline stipulated in the "Memorandum of Understanding." The US official told CNN that Trump instructed his top envoys to halt any negotiations with Iran. The US official confirmed that the United States is moving toward gradually strangling Iran and imposing crushing sanctions. According to the US official's statements to CNN, Washington informed its allies that it is changing its strategy toward Iran. The US official confirmed that Trump wants a clear signal from Iran's leaders of their readiness to conclude an agreement. From Al Arabiya
On Tuesday, August 17, US President Donald Trump posted a picture of the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Twitter and wrote: "Notice the hat." In the picture, Graham is wearing a hat that says: "Make Iran Great Again." Trump simultaneously wrote in another post on Twitter: "There are no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic and no negotiations or talks are planned."
A White House correspondent quoted an American official on the X Network as saying: "Donald Trump's post on Truth Social about suspending talks with the Islamic Republic until they are ready to make an agreement means that he has canceled negotiations with Tehran for the foreseeable future."
Live: #MIDDLE_EAST Donald Trump stated on his Truth Social network that no discussions with Iran were currently taking place, nor were any planned...
*US President Donald Trump:* There are no talks or discussions taking place, or planned, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The naval blockade remains in full effect. The Strait of Hormuz is open and operational. All naval mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
US President Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network on Tuesday, August 17: "There are no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic, and no negotiations or talks are planned."
He added: "The naval blockade remains in full force, the Strait of Hormuz is open and active, and all naval mines have been collected or detonated."
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Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
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What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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