Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Masoud Pezeshkian
Open$72Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO88¢
±0 ptsas of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Latest Round of U.S.-Iran Talks Failed. Tehran Now Says Conversations are Meaningless.. • "Every time we come to the negotiating table, war is immediately imposed on us," Masoud Pezeshkian said.
On Monday, October 4, during a meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the head of government in the Islamic Republic, Masoud Pezeshkian said that the United States is not seeking dialogue and that its goal is to “overthrow the Islamic Republic.” He added: “Negotiations are meaningless with an enemy that terrorizes, sanctions, pressures, and threatens every day and is a treaty-breaker.” Pezeshkian said: “Our problem with the United States is that every time we negotiate, war is immediately imposed on us.” He added: “They have attacked us three times after negotiations, and this shows that they are not seeking dialogue, but rather their goal is to overthrow the Islamic Republic.” He also said: “The Islamic Republic has repeatedly proven its honesty in the field of nuclear activities, and the most monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency in the world has been related to Iran.”
Pezeshkian: Iran no longer trusts talks with America Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that his country no longer trusts talks with Washington due to its repeated attacks and continued sanctions after every round of negotiations. He indicated that Pakistan and Qatar are currently mediating in this matter and conveying Tehran's messages to Washington.
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Pezeshkian: We are ready to help resolve the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed that there is no trust in direct negotiations with Washington due to the repeated attacks and imposition of sanctions after each round of talks. He stressed that Middle East security must be achieved through regional cooperation among the countries of the region, without the need for an "external policeman."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: We no longer trust talks with Washington after repeated attacks and sanctions following every negotiation. [in reply to: Iranian President: Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a natural thing when Iran is cut off from other routes. - The solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis is possible through negotiations, not the use of force. - Regional security can be achieved through cooperation between its countries, and we do not need a regional policeman.]
NONews94%match79¢+10%
(Iran's Al Alam) Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: It is difficult to hold a direct meeting with Trump in light of the atmosphere of distrust between Iran and the United States.
Where does the news lean?
10YES15NO26neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 73% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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