What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
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Market pricing makes 4.25% the favorite at 67% across 15 tracked outcomes, as of .
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The Fed Just Hiked For The First Time Since 2023. Here’s What It Means For Your Portfolio. • On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation has been too high for too long and that price stability is the committee's overriding focus. Sixteen policymakers expect at least one more increase before year-end, with the median projection for the funds rate sitting near 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. Following the announcement, the S&P 500 closed at a six-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5%. The Fed's projections also show GDP forecast at 2.3% for 2026 and unemployment drifting lower to about 4.1%. Investors are advised to watch core inflation, wage data, and the upcoming October meeting closely.
The Fed Just Hiked For The First Time Since 2023. Here’s What It Means For Your Portfolio. • On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation has been too high for too long and that price stability is the committee's overriding focus. Sixteen policymakers expect at least one more increase before year-end, with the median projection for the funds rate sitting near 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. Following the announcement, the S&P 500 closed at a six-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5%. The Fed's projections also show GDP forecast at 2.3% for 2026 and unemployment drifting lower to about 4.1%. Investors are advised to watch core inflation, wage data, and the upcoming October meeting closely.
The Fed Just Hiked For The First Time Since 2023. Here’s What It Means For Your Portfolio. • On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation has been too high for too long and that price stability is the committee's overriding focus. Sixteen policymakers expect at least one more increase before year-end, with the median projection for the funds rate sitting near 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. Following the announcement, the S&P 500 closed at a six-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5%. The Fed's projections also show GDP forecast at 2.3% for 2026 and unemployment drifting lower to about 4.1%. Investors are advised to watch core inflation, wage data, and the upcoming October meeting closely.
The Fed Just Hiked For The First Time Since 2023. Here’s What It Means For Your Portfolio. • On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation has been too high for too long and that price stability is the committee's overriding focus. Sixteen policymakers expect at least one more increase before year-end, with the median projection for the funds rate sitting near 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. Following the announcement, the S&P 500 closed at a six-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5%. The Fed's projections also show GDP forecast at 2.3% for 2026 and unemployment drifting lower to about 4.1%. Investors are advised to watch core inflation, wage data, and the upcoming October meeting closely.
Fed rate hike jolts markets after it signals a huge shock. • Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4% and signaled another 2026 hike as stubborn inflation, energy prices and markets pressure Kevin Warsh.
Fed rate hike jolts markets after it signals a huge shock. • Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4% and signaled another 2026 hike as stubborn inflation, energy prices and markets pressure Kevin Warsh.
FOMC statement: Policy interest rate raised by 0.25 percent to 3.75-4.00 percent per annum.
FED DOT PLOT COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER 2026 HIKE • • The Fed’s updated Dot Plot is expected to show rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today’s anticipated 25bp increase. • • The bigger question is 2027: projections may still signal eventual rate cuts even after near-term tightening. • • Market angle: whether the Fed preserves a 2027 cut could determine whether today’s message is interpreted as hawkish or more balanced.
Wells Fargo said it expects Kevin Warsh and the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% in 2026
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 80 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 80 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 80 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 80 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 80 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
July 2026 Fed Rate Decision: Kevin Warsh Expected to Hold as Hike Odds Remain at 38%. • The July 2026 Federal Reserve decision has created a striking divide between economic forecasts and financial-market pricing. Al
The US Federal Reserve kept its base interest rate at 3.5-3.75% As stated in the statement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision was made by a majority vote - nine members of the committee supported maintaining the rate, three spoke against. At the same time, the regulator emphasized that inflation still exceeds the target level of 2%, which is partly due to supply shocks and price increases in certain sectors, including energy. [in reply to: The US economy grew by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce published the final estimate of GDP for the first quarter: the economy grew by 2.1% year-on-year, Kazinform's own correspondent reports in Washington, Rustem Kozybaev. The figure exceeded economists' forecast of 1.6%. The main contributors to GDP growth were IT, professional, scientific, and technical services, while retail and wholesale trade, as well as the financial and insurance sectors, held it back. ]
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, but three opposed it, calling for a rate hike. Chairman Warsh says, "We will take action if necessary." The federal funds rate, the benchmark for the policy interest rate, is 3.5-3.75%, and has remained unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The three who voted against it called for a 0.25% rate hike.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady but not without opposition from three officials who have expressed concern over inflation and wanted to hike. • • Despite increasing support among some officials for a rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. • • Full details:
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady but not without opposition from three officials who have expressed concern over inflation and wanted to hike. • • Despite increasing support among some officials for a rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. • • Full details:
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% as Three Officials Favor a 25-Basis-Point Hike • • The Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to leave the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% as Three Officials Favor a 25-Basis-Point Hike • • The Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to leave the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% as Three Officials Favor a 25-Basis-Point Hike • • The Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to leave the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
The US Federal Reserve keeps its key interest rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range.
3 Fed members voted to raise rates
3 Fed members voted to raise rates
The US Federal Reserve keeps its key interest rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range.
The US Federal Reserve keeps its key interest rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range.
What is this event about?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).