What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?3.75%
Open$533Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 25% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES25¢
NO75¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% as Three Officials Favor a 25-Basis-Point Hike • • The Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to leave the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.5%-3.75% range.
FED HOLDS RATES, HAWKISH SPLIT EMERGES • • The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, saying inflation remains above its 2% target while the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. • • The decision passed 9–3, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike. • • The Fed also highlighted strong productivity, resilient job growth and ongoing ample reserves in the banking system.
YESNews92%match25¢
*FED VOTES 9-3 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE
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*FED LEAVES BENCHMARK RATE AT 3.75%; EST. 3.75%
YESReuters97%match31¢-19%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, Said All 104 Economists
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 78 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 102 Economists in Late
The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, setting the upper bound at 3.75%, in line with market expectations of 3.75% and unchanged from the previous level of 3.75%. • •
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2026 3.4% (PREV 3.4%).
YESNews98%match24¢+4%
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate in the range of 3.5-3.75%.
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2026 3.4% (PREV 3.4%)
March FOMC 'Dot Plot' median fed funds rate projections: • • 2026: 3.375% (prior 3.375%) • 2027: 3.125% (prior 3.125%) • 2028: 3.125% (prior 3.125%) • Longer-run: 3.125% (prior 3.000%)
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent.
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*Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 3.1% at End of 2027
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*Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 3.4% at End of 2026
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Fed Officials’ Median View of Fed Funds Rate at End-2026 3.4% (Prev 3.4%)
NOCGTN Europe98%match94¢-20%
POLL-US FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT FED FUNDS RATE BY 25 BPS TO 3.25-3.50% RANGE BY END-JUNE, SAID 60 OF 101 ECONOMISTS (NO CONSENSUS IN JANUARY POLL)
YESDB News99%match6¢+317%
*FED LEAVES BENCHMARK RATE AT 3.75%; EST. 3.75%
Where does the news lean?
18YES11NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
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