Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement

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May 31, 2027Ukrainian Media93%match52¢+2%
There is currently no secret energy deal and Russia and Ukraine are not interested in it - expert Senior sovereign strategy specialist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, Ukraine specialist Timothy Ash is convinced that Vladimir Putin is currently completely uninterested in accepting any energy deal and will seek to escalate the war in Ukraine in the near future, while simultaneously working to disrupt support for Ukraine from its partners. "His agenda will be focused on the French elections in May 2027, and until then, and throughout the winter, he will seek to escalate the conflict. The goal will be to paralyze the Ukrainian economy and increase Europe's spending on supporting Ukraine to such a level that in mid-2027 Europe will have to decide whether to continue supporting Ukraine and how," Ash wrote in his column on the Substack platform in Tuesday. ...
Zelensky: Russia violated the energy ceasefire announced by President Trump. We are waiting for the details of the talks between the Americans and the Russians; such an energy ceasefire could succeed. The Americans must ensure that the Russians respect the energy ceasefire. A full ceasefire will be required for any elections to be held.
October 31apnews.com93%match95¢+1%
[UPDATE] Trump says Russia and Ukraine agree to an ‘energy ceasefire’ but Kyiv says attacks continue (first reported at 2026-10-11T08:33:13Z)
Zelensky and Trump offered the Kremlin a ceasefire on terms it had previously rejected. On Sunday evening, Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to Donald Trump's statement that Ukraine needs a new president. Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv would agree to hold elections in Ukraine if Russia agreed to a full 60-day ceasefire. This isn't a new idea from the Ukrainian authorities, and the Kremlin has already responded to it. Moscow called such a ceasefire unacceptable. Trump then announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy truce. He had made similar statements before, but they failed to lead to a real ceasefire. Details: Zelenskyy was asked to comment on Trump's statement that "Ukraine needs a new leader" on ABC's "This Week." The Ukrainian president stated that "with all due respect to President Trump, the choice of a leader is a matter for our society, our people." According to Zelenskyy, "we are in a state of war, and holding elections is truly difficult." "It's not just that it's absolutely unsafe and goes beyond our laws, beyond our constitution, but most importantly, we need a security infrastructure to enable people to vote," Zelenskyy said. Quote. "So please tell Putin: give us two months, 60 days, of respite. A complete ceasefire for 60 days, and we will organize elections. Of course, we will be ready for any choice our people, specifically the Ukrainian people, make," Zelenskyy said. Zelensky emphasized that "Putin really wanted to change the president in Ukraine." The Ukrainian President added that Kyiv wants peace and is ready to "start with any steps toward de-escalation." Quote: "We are prepared for an energy ceasefire so that both sides do not strike energy facilities. And if the Russians want us to avoid striking their diesel plants, oil refineries, and so on, we ask President Trump to signal them not to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure." An old idea. Zelenskyy already proposed a two-month ceasefire to allow elections and a referendum in Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in February. Following this, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated that Russia is prepared to ensure the absence of airstrikes on election day in Ukraine if Kyiv decides to hold the elections. Galuzin recalled Vladimir Putin's words, who, at his final press conference in December, declared his readiness to "refrain from deep strikes on election day" in Ukraine. Following Galuzin's statement, Zelenskyy noted in an interview with Axios that Russia had only agreed to a one-day ceasefire so that Ukraine could organize and conduct a nationwide vote, rather than the 60 days that the Ukrainian president believes are necessary for this. Even before Zelenskyy's speech at the Munich Security Conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that "a ceasefire of at least 60 days, or even longer, is unacceptable for us." Trump's latest attempt to declare a ceasefire. After Zelenskyy's announcement, Trump wrote on his TruthSocial page that "an energy ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect today." "Both sides have agreed to this. Don't break it!" Trump wrote. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov previously stated that Trump's ceasefire proposal would only be effective if attacks on Russian tankers ceased and sanctions against Russia were partially lifted. On Friday, Trump fulfilled Putin's condition for lifting sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. Trump's new statement may indicate that the latter condition is likely fulfilled. At the same time, Zelensky told Axios journalist Barak Ravid that the ceasefire announcement was news to him. Context. A new round of discussions about relations between Kyiv and Washington began with Trump's statements on Saturday that Ukraine needs a new president because Zelenskyy refuses to sign a peace agreement with Russia. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
Trump announces ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine #OOTT
Trump announces ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine #OOTT
Trump announces ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine #OOTT
Trump announces ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine #OOTT
Trump announces ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine #OOTT
November 30Kpler Analyst92%match10¢-20%
Trump announces ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine #OOTT
The deepest crisis between Washington and Kyiv since February 2025: Trump called for Zelensky's replacement, Musk supported him, and the White House began discussing the unfreezing of Russian assets. US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Ukraine needs a new president because Volodymyr Zelenskyy refuses to reach a peace agreement with Russia. American billionaire Elon Musk echoed the Ukrainian president's criticism. Following Trump's statement, the US may cease data exchange. Musk, in turn, controls Starlink, which is a competitive advantage for the Ukrainian military. Against this backdrop, it was reported that the White House is discussing the possibility of releasing frozen Russian assets as an incentive to push Russia toward a limited ceasefire. Quote: "I suggest they find a new leader who can make a deal, because he [Zelensky] could make a lot of deals, but for some reason he never does. I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president," Trump told reporters on Saturday. Trump blamed Zelenskyy for the ongoing war and the rise in global diesel fuel prices. According to the US president, he personally demanded an end to the strikes on Russian refineries, but Zelenskyy ignored the warning. "He better damn well stop," Trump declared. He later told reporters that “Russia would like to conclude an agreement… but for some reason Zelenskyy does not want this,” “President Putin really wants to achieve a settlement,” and Zelenskyy “should hold elections.” SpaceX owner Elon Musk joined Zelenskyy's criticism. "Zelenskyy has gone too far," he wrote on X, commenting on a video of Trump's statements about strikes on Russian oil refineries. Musk then clarified: "I agree, it's time for Ukraine to change its leader." How serious is this for Ukraine? Axios calls this the most serious crisis in the Trump-Zelensky relationship since their February 2025 Oval Office spat. This is the lowest point in relations between the two leaders since their Oval Office spat in 2025, according to The Wall Street Journal. This risks undermining Europe's 18-month effort to persuade Trump to maintain US support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia, the publication explains. According to the Financial Times, American officials warned the Ukrainian delegation at the Miami talks that continued strikes on Russian oil refineries could lead to a halt in intelligence sharing. This could impact the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The US already suspended intelligence sharing after the March 2025 presidential conflict. Ukrainian officials told the Wall Street Journal that they would continue to strike oil refineries. Kyiv depends on the US for more than just intelligence sharing. Musk's SpaceX provides the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Starlink satellite internet. At the same time, American negotiators offered Moscow three economic incentives in exchange for a limited ceasefire—one in energy and one at sea, The New York Times reports. These included the release of billions of dollars in Russian assets as an initial incentive for a partial ceasefire, the sale of some Lukoil assets to Middle Eastern investors, including those with ties to US negotiators, and permission for Belarus to export potash fertilizers. Kyiv's response: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha wrote that Zelenskyy enjoys the support of Ukrainians, and only they have the right to decide who will lead the country. The Kremlin's reaction: Putin's special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, welcomed Musk's criticism of Zelensky, calling it a "turning point." Context. Tensions between Washington and Kyiv worsened after Trump, following a conversation with Putin, announced the import of Russian diesel fuel, and the US Treasury Department authorized operations with this fuel until April 2027. The agreement came as a surprise to Ukraine. Analysts polled by Reuters believe the deal is unlikely to lead to a sustained decline in fuel prices in the US, as Russia may only be able to supply limited quantities of fuel after the strikes on refineries. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
Trump is happy, Zelensky is furious, Ukrainian negotiators in Miami were caught off guard: what reactions did the large-scale "diesel deal" between Russia and the United States provoke? Details of the agreement Putin and Trump agreed on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the American and world markets yesterday by phone. Afterwards, the US Treasury issued a temporary license permitting the supply of Russian diesel fuel to world markets until April 7, 2027. Russia will immediately begin lifting restrictions on diesel exports, which were previously extended until October 31, Deputy Prime Minister Novak told TASS. According to Novak, Russia can supply up to 300 thousand tons of diesel fuel to the world market in October, 500 thousand tons in November and 1 million tons in December. Trump's gratitude and Zelensky's reaction Trump thanked Putin for the deal, calling it a "big deal." He stated that such an agreement would significantly reduce diesel fuel prices in the US and around the world in a short time. Zelensky, who in recent days has increasingly asked for increased pressure on Russia, was shocked by the deal. He called it unfair and complained to reporters: "This is like a birthday present to Putin... It's really unfair." When Trump was told that the head of the Kyiv regime considered the deal "weak," he simply stated laconically: "Okay." Breakdown of negotiations in the US According to Axios, Trump decided to negotiate with Putin on diesel fuel supplies after Zelensky repeatedly ignored US requests to stop strikes on Russian oil refineries. Negotiations between US and Ukrainian officials in Miami were terminated early after the deal was announced, the Financial Times reported. According to the newspaper, Witkoff and Kushner threatened at the meeting that they would stop sharing intelligence with Kyiv if the strikes on Russian oil refineries did not stop. To stay up to date with the latest news: Website | MAX | Telegram
Talks between US and Ukrainian representatives, scheduled to take place in Miami on October 9 and 10, were terminated early after Trump announced a "diesel deal" with Russia, the Financial Times reports, citing sources. Also, according to the newspaper, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner raised the possibility of stopping the transfer of intelligence to Kyiv if Ukraine "does not heed Washington's warning" about the need to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. Yesterday's agreement between Russia and the US on large-scale diesel fuel supplies caught Zelenskyy off guard. In an interview with Axios, he called the deal "unfair and unfair." Later, a US official told Axios that Trump decided to negotiate with Putin on Russian diesel fuel supplies after Zelensky repeatedly ignored US requests to stop striking Russian oil refineries. To stay up to date with the latest news: Website | MAX | Telegram
The Kremlin has persuaded Washington to begin economic cooperation without resolving the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin informed Donald Trump that Russia was postponing the resumption of trilateral negotiations with the United States and Ukraine indefinitely, according to a late-night comment by Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. Despite this, the American president announced an agreement with Moscow on Russian diesel fuel supplies, which Washington had agreed to ease sanctions for. Thus, the Trump administration has moved to implement economic projects with the Kremlin without waiting for a resolution to the war. This is precisely the approach Moscow has been seeking from the United States since the beginning of the American president's second term. Details: According to Ushakov, Putin informed Trump during a phone call that, following the airstrikes during the Russian elections in September, resuming trilateral negotiations was impossible in the near future. Quote: "It was particularly noted that while during the previous conversation between the presidents there was talk of resuming trilateral negotiations involving the US and Ukraine, resuming them immediately after the State Duma elections, the situation is different now. With its attempts to disrupt our elections by launching a massive drone strike on Moscow, other cities, and polling stations on the main voting day, targeting specific individuals associated with the election organization, the Kyiv regime has essentially thwarted the possibility of immediately resuming the negotiation process. And now, as the president said, we will consider when these negotiations can be resumed," Ushakov said. Despite this, after a conversation with Putin, Trump announced an agreement providing for the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the American and global markets. Thus, Washington agreed to sanctions relief without receiving publicly announced concessions from Moscow regarding Ukraine. The statement indicates that diesel fuel supplies were not the only economic project discussed by the two sides: "The leaders of the two countries discussed in detail the preparation of large-scale economic initiatives." As early as October 1, the Russian leader's press secretary expressed regret that the US continues to insist that economic cooperation can only resume after progress in negotiations. Background: The New York Times reported on September 18 that Washington might abandon its previous approach. According to the newspaper, the Trump administration was considering concluding economic agreements with Moscow before the war ended. On October 3, the NYT reported that Russian-American negotiations touched on a multi-billion-dollar deal involving Lukoil's foreign assets. Putin personally raised the issue at a meeting with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on September 5. According to a NYT source, the Russian president proposed completing the deal to demonstrate to Russians the possibility of doing business with the United States. On October 8, Reuters reported that the possibility of attracting an American investor to the Nord Stream gas pipeline projects was discussed during negotiations between the United States and Russia. The current diesel deal is the first confirmation that Washington and Moscow have moved from words to action. How the White House explained the deal. The Trump administration, through a source told Axios, attributed its decision to enter into a diesel fuel supply agreement with Russia to Ukraine's refusal to cease attacks on Russian oil refineries, which, according to the White House, is driving up diesel prices in the US. Trump negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner briefed Ukrainians and Europeans on potential energy deals with Russia on Friday. They expressed hope that the deals would encourage Russia to make concessions in peace talks, Axios reports. Kyiv's reaction. In an interview with Axios, Zelensky said it came as a complete surprise, calling it "unfair and dishonest" and an unjustified gift to Putin. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
November 30, 2027tf1info.fr92%match70¢-4%
Live: AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
April 30, 2027tf1info.fr92%match42¢-7%
Live: AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
March 31, 2027tf1info.fr91%match38¢-18%
Live: AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
February 28, 2027tf1info.fr92%match32¢-12%
Live: AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
November 30tf1info.fr92%match13¢-38%
Live: AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
December 31telegraph.co.uk92%match24¢-29%
Trump announces Ukraine and Russia energy ceasefire
November 30telegraph.co.uk92%match14¢-43%
Trump announces Ukraine and Russia energy ceasefire
October 31telegraph.co.uk92%match9¢-56%
Trump announces Ukraine and Russia energy ceasefire
Russia insists on prolonging the war and preventing progress towards a lasting peace. Spain stands with Ukraine. (2/2)
Russia insists on prolonging the war and preventing progress towards a lasting peace. Spain stands with Ukraine. (2/2)
Russia insists on prolonging the war and preventing progress towards a lasting peace. Spain stands with Ukraine. (2/2)
Russia insists on prolonging the war and preventing progress towards a lasting peace. Spain stands with Ukraine. (2/2)
October 31ft.com99%match69¢+39%
Russia pummels Ukraine with missiles and drones as ceasefire collapses
October 31FT Reporter99%match69¢+39%
The ongoing Russian missile and drone attack across Ukraine also comes after a three-day ceasefire over last weekend which — as with brief armistices past — allowed Putin’s army to stockpile weapons and launch this major barrage.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.