What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?2.0%
Open$265Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ALERT: US Fed raises inflation outlook by end-2026 to 2.7%
NOFinancialJuice98%match100¢
Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% February 25th vs 3.64% February 24th
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% February 24th vs 3.64% February 23rd
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 3.64% February 20th vs 3.64% February 19th
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
Fed's Hammack: Current Fed funds rate is right around neutral.
NOFinancialJuice99%match99¢+1%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 3.64% Feb. 10th unchanged
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
FED’S HAMMACK: CURRENT FED TARGET RATE ‘IN VICINITY’ OF NEUTRAL
NOFinancialJuice99%match99¢+1%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 3.64% February 6 vs 3.64% February 5.
Where does the news lean?
0YES8NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
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