What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?1.75%
Open$150Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters97%match100¢
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, Said 80 of 104 Economists (vs 78 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. • • Governor Stephen Miran dissented, calling for a quarter-point reduction.
In a widely expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.
The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, setting the upper bound at 3.75%, in line with market expectations of 3.75% and unchanged from the previous level of 3.75%. • •
ALERT: US Fed raises inflation outlook by end-2026 to 2.7%
NOdj99%match100¢
*Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 3.1% at End of 2027
NOFinancialJuice98%match100¢
Fed's Hammack: Current Fed funds rate is right around neutral.
NOFirst Squawk98%match100¢
FED’S HAMMACK: CURRENT FED TARGET RATE ‘IN VICINITY’ OF NEUTRAL
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Related markets
See all outcomes for What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.