Likud Party Primary Winner
Open43as of
This hub tracks 43 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu passes the "strength test" in the Knesset primaries. The results maintain his influence within Likud while sidelining his rivals, and Ben-Gvir announces his support for some candidates despite being outside the party.
The choice of Yariv Levin at the top of the Likud list illustrates that this is a party that is a whale swimming with the aim of committing suicide on the beach. Levin is more responsible than anyone else - except Netanyahu himself - for the collapse of the entire bloc. Everyone knows this. His friends in the Likud are berating him for not consulting them before that press conference, which led the country into chaos that culminated on October 7. There is no person who has created a plan more harmful to the State of Israel, internally and externally, than Levin. Shas doesn't want to hear his name out of disgust. And if all of this were worth it. Levin passed almost none of the elements of his putsch; on the other hand, with the start of the "reform" Likud immediately lost seats that were never returned. Likud has been losing in most polls since March 2023, long before the Hamas invasion - and that's because of the partnership with the Haredim and the legal coup. Netanyahu knows all this, Likud senior figures (even those who survived) are talking about it. But Likud members are swimming to shore, like the whale.
FWD from Political arena : Analysis of gaps between the previous primaries and the current ones:
Eli Cohen - an increase of 57 votes Amir Ohana - an increase of 5,245 votes Yariv Levin - a decrease of 6,867 votes Miri Regev - an increase of 5,405 votes Ofir Katz - an increase of 14,512 votes Yoav Kish - a decrease of 1,453 votes Miki Zohar - an increase of 2,030 votes Dudi Amsalem - a decrease of 10,714 votes Tali Gottlieb - an increase of 15,030 votes Shlomo Kerei - a decrease of 5,408 Votes Boaz Bismuth - an increase of 3,362 votes David Bitan - a decrease of 2,879 votes Nir Barkat - a decrease of 11,532 votes Gila Gamliel - an increase of 3,234 votes Etti Atia - an increase of 3,472 votes May Golan - an increase of 1,124 votes Kati Shitrit - an increase of 314 votes Avi Dichter - a decrease of 15,592 votes
For updates on WhatsApp chat.whatsapp.com/Jcr5hhigrgELjrhZAb5wFq
Political arena
FWD from Political arena : Analysis of gaps between the previous primaries and the current ones:
Eli Cohen - an increase of 57 votes Amir Ohana - an increase of 5,245 votes Yariv Levin - a decrease of 6,867 votes Miri Regev - an increase of 5,405 votes Ofir Katz - an increase of 14,512 votes Yoav Kish - a decrease of 1,453 votes Miki Zohar - an increase of 2,030 votes Dudi Amsalem - a decrease of 10,714 votes Tali Gottlieb - an increase of 15,030 votes Shlomo Kerei - a decrease of 5,408 Votes Boaz Bismuth - an increase of 3,362 votes David Bitan - a decrease of 2,879 votes Nir Barkat - a decrease of 11,532 votes Gila Gamliel - an increase of 3,234 votes Etti Atia - an increase of 3,472 votes May Golan - an increase of 1,124 votes Kati Shitrit - an increase of 314 votes Avi Dichter - a decrease of 15,592 votes
For updates on WhatsApp chat.whatsapp.com/Jcr5hhigrgELjrhZAb5wFq
Political arena
FWD from Political arena : Analysis of gaps between the previous primaries and the current ones:
Eli Cohen - an increase of 57 votes Amir Ohana - an increase of 5,245 votes Yariv Levin - a decrease of 6,867 votes Miri Regev - an increase of 5,405 votes Ofir Katz - an increase of 14,512 votes Yoav Kish - a decrease of 1,453 votes Miki Zohar - an increase of 2,030 votes Dudi Amsalem - a decrease of 10,714 votes Tali Gottlieb - an increase of 15,030 votes Shlomo Kerei - a decrease of 5,408 Votes Boaz Bismuth - an increase of 3,362 votes David Bitan - a decrease of 2,879 votes Nir Barkat - a decrease of 11,532 votes Gila Gamliel - an increase of 3,234 votes Etti Atia - an increase of 3,472 votes May Golan - an increase of 1,124 votes Kati Shitrit - an increase of 314 votes Avi Dichter - a decrease of 15,592 votes
For updates on WhatsApp chat.whatsapp.com/Jcr5hhigrgELjrhZAb5wFq
Political arena
FWD from Political arena : Analysis of gaps between the previous primaries and the current ones:
Eli Cohen - an increase of 57 votes Amir Ohana - an increase of 5,245 votes Yariv Levin - a decrease of 6,867 votes Miri Regev - an increase of 5,405 votes Ofir Katz - an increase of 14,512 votes Yoav Kish - a decrease of 1,453 votes Miki Zohar - an increase of 2,030 votes Dudi Amsalem - a decrease of 10,714 votes Tali Gottlieb - an increase of 15,030 votes Shlomo Kerei - a decrease of 5,408 Votes Boaz Bismuth - an increase of 3,362 votes David Bitan - a decrease of 2,879 votes Nir Barkat - a decrease of 11,532 votes Gila Gamliel - an increase of 3,234 votes Etti Atia - an increase of 3,472 votes May Golan - an increase of 1,124 votes Kati Shitrit - an increase of 314 votes Avi Dichter - a decrease of 15,592 votes
For updates on WhatsApp chat.whatsapp.com/Jcr5hhigrgELjrhZAb5wFq
Political arena
From event to event - to the top of the Likud: This is how Eli Cohen jumped to first place in the primaries
Likud primaries: Netanyahu's allies lead, ministers threatened (news report) — Initial results place Eli Cohen in the lead, and Netanyahu has named 4 out of the 8 he is entitled to place on the list. — The first 16 names on the list include 15 Netanyahu loyalists, according to primaries held in preparation for the Knesset elections on October 27. — If the current results hold, ministers including Ze'ev Elkin and Avi Dichter, and MKs including Hanoch Milvidsky and Keti Sheetrit, will lose their seats.
Likud primaries: Netanyahu's allies lead, ministers threatened (news report) — Initial results place Eli Cohen in the lead, and Netanyahu has named 4 out of the 8 he is entitled to place on the list. — The first 16 names on the list include 15 Netanyahu loyalists, according to primaries held in preparation for the Knesset elections on October 27. — If the current results hold, ministers including Ze'ev Elkin and Avi Dichter, and MKs including Hanoch Milvidsky and Keti Sheetrit, will lose their seats.
Netanyahu's Likud party announces the results of its primary elections today to select its Knesset candidates list.
Likud: The Prime Minister is very pleased with the results of the Likud primaries and congratulates those who were selected for the list
Likud statement: Prime Minister and Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is very pleased with the results of the Likud primaries and congratulates those who were selected for the list.
*Likud statement:* Prime Minister and Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is very pleased with the results of the Likud primaries and congratulates those who were selected for the list. The new Likud list reflects renewal and the integration of new forces at the top of the list. Together with the armored personnel carriers appointed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, who will further strengthen the list, the Likud team led by Netanyahu will lead to a great victory and the establishment of a broad national government immediately after the elections. This is the only way to prevent a left-wing government of Eisenkot, Yair Golan, Liberman and the Arab parties. Prime Minister Netanyahu thanks the Likud functionaries who chose according to common sense and not according to deals. Prime Minister Netanyahu also greatly appreciates those who did not manage to make it onto the list, thanks them for their contribution and intends to involve them in efforts to ensure Likud's victory.
Vote counting in the primaries is over: Eli Cohen in first place by a margin of 3,000 votes
Vote count complete: Eli Cohen in the lead, Bitan has deteriorated - and Barkat is in the lead | Likud primaries results @glick_sh
Likud vote count complete: Eli Cohen, Ohana and Levin at the top of the list; May Golan, Silman and Dichter out
@avivi_efrat
Eli Hirshman
The counting is over - these are the results of the Likud primaries
In conclusion - Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there is really no big difference - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he is left with a few pockets of independence on the list, like Bitan in 14th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out.
Gamliel is only in 18th place, Barkat is in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope members. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset.
In conclusion - Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there is really no big difference - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he is left with a few pockets of independence on the list, like Bitan in 14th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out.
Gamliel is only in 18th place, Barkat is in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope members. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset.
Another point: Shlomo Karai claimed during his term above all else that David Bitan does not represent the Likud because he opposed his reform to weaken the media. Well, there is now a battle between him and Bitan for 14th place, with Karai leading Bitan by less than 100 votes.
One percent remains to be counted. So how can we summarize? Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there are really no major differences compared to last time - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he has a few pockets of independence left on the list, like Bitan in 13th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out. Gamliel is only in 18th place, Bareket in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope people. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset. In short - there's not much new under the sun.
One percent remains to be counted. So how can we summarize? Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there are really no major differences compared to last time - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he has a few pockets of independence left on the list, like Bitan in 13th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out. Gamliel is only in 18th place, Bareket in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope people. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset. In short - there's not much new under the sun.
Mevzken 12
Yariv Levin, who appears to be placed seventh on the Likud list, thanked voters in the primaries: I will continue to act fearlessly to complete legal reform
When Netanyahu decided to punish Eli Cohen and give Israel Katz half of his term in the Foreign Ministry. Then upgrade Katz to the Defense Ministry and send him to the mediocre Energy Ministry. Eli Cohen had to choose whether to become a rebel/rebellious person who would spend all day debating politics. Or focus entirely on his work and working with those who function. He chose the second option even though every sensible person knows that he was wronged in the last portfolio distribution. Now he has rightfully and justly received first place, and that's before we even talk about the clean and high-quality campaign he ran all the way to first place in the primaries. A reminder of Eli Cohen's unusual campaign:
Likud primaries: 96% of votes counted - a close battle between two ministers | This is the emerging list >> bit.ly/45CStOW
Amit Segal
Nir Barkat will finish in 24th place, the last realistic spot for a candidate on the national list. But Netanyahu has a long history of handling problematic candidates according to his method. Now, for example, he could reserve this spot for a new hope, Michel Busquila, and thus push Barkat to 32nd place.
Nir Barkat will finish in 24th place, the last realistic place for a candidate on the national list. But - Netanyahu has a long history of treating problematic candidates in his view as the last realistic place. In 2009, he invented an interpretation to push Feiglin out of there. Now, for example, he can reserve this place for a man of new hope, Michel Busquila, and thus throw Barkat into 32nd place. This is not the United States Constitution, this is the rules of the primaries.
Likud primaries: 94% of ballots counted, Bitan overtakes Boaz Bismuth, battle between Shikli and Dodi Amsalem
@DaphnaLiel
Likud primaries: After 91% of the votes have been counted - Minister Eli Cohen leads, Ministers Shikli and Amsalem in the second ten. Close battle between Ministers Elkin and Barkat for 24th place @glick_sh
Likud primaries: After 91% of the votes have been counted - Minister Eli Cohen leads, Ministers Shikli and Amsalem in the second ten. Close battle between Ministers Elkin and Barkat for 24th place @glick_sh
What is this event about?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.