Likud Party Primary WinnerAlmog Cohen
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
In conclusion - Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there is really no big difference - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he is left with a few pockets of independence on the list, like Bitan in 14th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out.
Gamliel is only in 18th place, Barkat is in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope members. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset.
One percent remains to be counted. So how can we summarize? Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there are really no major differences compared to last time - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he has a few pockets of independence left on the list, like Bitan in 13th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out. Gamliel is only in 18th place, Bareket in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope people. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset. In short - there's not much new under the sun.
Eli Cohen is emerging as the big winner of the primaries and is establishing himself at the top of the Likud, while Ohana and Levin maintain their strength and Miri Regev opens a large gap over Gottlieb in the battle for the women's primary. The big surprise is Almog Cohen - entering the race almost at the last minute, without a veteran field mechanism, and already in eighth place in the raw results. Several senior and ministerial candidates are weakening significantly: Dichter, Silman and May Golan are out for now, and Bareket is falling from the top to a battle of hundreds of votes against Elkin for the last realistic spot. The functionaries once again preferred candidates with a strong hold on the base and a clear presence on the ground; seniority, title and public exposure are no longer enough to secure a high place on the list. The next battle will be over the armored ones - will Netanyahu be able to use them to bring in names from outside, or will the results force him to turn them into a lifeline for ministers and MKs who fell in the primaries.
For those who are now up, we are fresh after 83% of the ballots - Eli Cohen wins the primaries by a wide margin, followed by Amir Ohana. Ofir Katz with an amazing achievement in the top five, Almog Cohen surprised in 8th place. Bareket in a survival battle against Elkin for the last realistic place by a margin of less than 300 votes. Gottlieb in 12th place, and Bitan survived in 14th.
Dafna Liel
The situation in the Likud primaries (according to 80% of the ballots counted): Eli Cohen leads in 1st place, followed by Amir Ohana (2), Yariv Levin (3), Miri Regev (4), Ofir Katz (5), Yoav Kish (6), Miki Zohar (7), Almog Cohen (8), Dudi Amsalem (9) and Amichai Shikli in 10th place
Likud primaries: After 80% of ballots counted - Eli Cohen continues to lead. He is followed on the list by Amir Ohana, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, Ofir Katz, Yoav Kish, Miki Zohar and Almog Cohen @diklaaharon
After 70% of the ballots - In the lead - Eli Cohen, Levin, Ohana, Regev, Ofir Katz and Kish who rises to 6th place.
Following them - Almog Cohen in a good position, Shikli, Amsalem, Saada and Gottlieb. Kerei overtakes Bitan in 13th and 14th place.
Close between Barkat and Bismuth.
After 65% of the ballots - In the lead - Eli Cohen, Levin, Ohana, Regev, Ofir Katz and Zohar.
Followed by - Almog Cohen in a nice entrance, Shikli, Amsalem, Saada and Gottlieb. In the dangerous places - Bismuth, Elkin who rises to 17th place and Levy.
Outside - Milbitsky, Silman and Mai Golan
61.5% of the ballots were counted - Gottlieb ahead of Bitan in 12th place. Almog Cohen in 8th place, followed by Shikli and Amsalem, closing out the top ten.
After his Pazm was cut short: Almog Cohen announces he will run in the primaries. Netanyahu supported him: "The decisive vote for passing the budget"
The Likud Secretariat is currently approving Netanyahu's new armor - and shortening Paz'm to Almog Cohen
Where does the news lean?
10YES12NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Likud Party Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.