Likud Party Primary WinnerIsrael Katz
ResolvedOutcome: No$3Kas of
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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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NO100¢
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Likud approves reserved spots for Israel Katz and Sa’ar, freezes vote on Haim Katz
Breaking News: The reasons presented by Likud Attorney General Bombach and Likud CEO Sharan before the Likud court to grant Defense Minister Yisrael Katz a security blanket and exempt him from the obligation to hold primaries: 1. The exemption from primaries and granting security blanket to Yisrael Katz are for the "good of the movement," and the court is authorized to grant any relief for the good of the movement. At this point, a number of Katz's gimmicks from the recent period were mentioned. It should be noted that an hour before this court hearing, Katz announced live on Channel 14 the ouster of Avi Balut and his replacement with Dedo Bar Khalifa. The court was asked, as stated, to consider the good of the movement and exempt Yisrael Katz from the obligation to hold primaries. 2. It is unfair to Katz, who is in security meetings for hours on end, and for every security meeting with the Prime Minister or cabinet meeting - there are many hours of preparation by the Minister of Defense. 3. We are in a challenging security period, and Israel needs a full-time defense minister, and not a defense minister who is forced to go to bar mitzvahs and weddings as part of a primary campaign. The remarks were not recorded in the minutes. The Defense Minister's office did not respond. The Likud Attorney General did not respond. The Likud CEO did not respond.
FWD from Avishai Greenzig - Updates: Breaking News: The reasons presented by Likud Attorney General Bombach and Likud CEO Sharan before the Likud court to grant Defense Minister Yisrael Katz a security clearance and exempt him from the obligation to hold primaries: 1. The exemption from primaries and granting security to Yisrael Katz are for the "good of the movement," and the court is authorized to grant any relief for the good of the movement. At this point, a number of Katz's gimmicks from the recent period were mentioned. It should be noted that an hour before this court hearing, Katz announced live on Channel 14 the ouster of Avi Balut and his replacement with Dado Bar Khalifa. The court was asked, as stated, to consider the good of the movement and exempt Yisrael Katz from the obligation to hold primaries. 2. It is unfair to Katz, who is in security meetings for hours on end, and for every security meeting with the Prime Minister or cabinet meeting - there are many hours of preparation by the Minister of Defense. 3. We are in a challenging security period, and Israel needs a full-time defense minister, and not a defense minister who is forced to go to bar mitzvahs and weddings as part of a primary campaign. The Defense Minister's office did not respond. The Likud Attorney General did not respond. The Likud CEO did not respond.
Shakeup in Likud: Party Secretariat to be asked to approve placing Gideon Sa'ar, Israel Katz and Haim Katz on list @amit_segal |
Democracy in the Likud is celebrating. In addition to the 8 security blankets Netanyahu received, the party announced tonight that Defense Minister Yisrael Katz will also receive security blankets on the list, in order to: "allow him to deal with security needs and not engage in politics at this time." 1. Katz was supposed to be elected high on the list anyway, so the change for the rest is not big. There is no need to pull out all the stops. 2. I don't think there is security blankets or any other action that could cause Yisrael Katz to not engage in politics. 3. It's a shame that this security blanket wasn't given at the beginning of his term, a lot of damage could have been avoided. 4. We may have benefited from more stupid videos of Israel's current Defense Minister. Enough.
Likud announces the reservation of Katz, Saar and Haim Katz: The Likud Secretariat will be asked to approve, in parallel with the Prime Minister's reservation, the placement of Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and the chairman of the party's central committee, Minister Haim Katz, on the Likud list - this is in addition to the new reservationists that the Prime Minister is expected to bring. The movement's court ruled last week that the defense minister, who was expected to reach the top of the list anyway, should be reserved in order to allow him to deal with security needs and not engage in politics at this time. Saar will be placed within the framework of the unity agreement with his party and the Likud movement, and Katz due to his role as chairman of the party's central committee.
Likud announces the reservation of Katz, Saar and Haim Katz: The Likud Secretariat will be asked to approve, in parallel with the Prime Minister's reservation, the placement of Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and the chairman of the party's central committee, Minister Haim Katz, on the Likud list - this is in addition to the new reservationists that the Prime Minister is expected to bring. The movement's court ruled last week that the defense minister, who was expected to reach the top of the list anyway, should be reserved in order to allow him to deal with security needs and not engage in politics at this time. Saar will be placed within the framework of the unification agreement with his party and the Likud movement, and Katz due to his role as chairman of the party's central committee.
Amit Segal
The Likud has now announced that they will request, in parallel with Prime Minister Netanyahu's reservations, that they also approve the reservations of Foreign Minister Sa'ar, Defense Minister Katz, and the chairman of the party's central committee, Minister Haim Katz. It is claimed that Defense Minister Israel Katz "was expected to reach the top of the list anyway" and that the movement's court ruled that he should be reserved on the list "in order to allow him to deal with security needs and not engage in politics at this time."
Perhaps Prime Minister Netanyahu also understood (considerably late, it must be said) the potential damage from Minister Katz's primary moves, which last week reached the point of an unfounded demand to release from detention a settler suspected of serious terrorist offenses against Palestinians [in reply to: Likud now announces late at night that Defense Minister Israel Katz will receive a seat on the Likud list - "in order to allow him to deal with security needs, and not engage in politics at this time."]
"Yisrael Katz boom-boom-boom!" A minute ago, Adir Dahan, the spokesman for the Minister of Defense (the spokesman for the Minister of Defense, not a spokesman or political advisor to a Likud MK, who receives a salary from the Ministry of Defense, that is, from the public, to discuss security issues), released the following message: "Yisrael Katz boom-boom-boom!" Watch: Another video in the primary campaign of Defense Minister Yisrael Katz The campaign presents the transformation led by Yisrael Katz in the defense establishment: breaking the concept, moving to an offensive policy, strengthening settlement, an unprecedented blow to the Iranian terror axis, eliminating senior leaders of terrorist organizations and expanding the IDF's freedom of action. The message is clear: Israel is not returning to concepts. Israel takes the initiative, attacks and is decisive. Israel Katz. Right-wing Defense Minister.
Vote 121 in the primaries" The following video is attached to the announcement:
Where does the news lean?
7YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
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