Likud Party Primary WinnerNir Barkat
ResolvedOutcome: No$3Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Close battles in Likud (80% of the ballots): In the battle for places 14 and 15, Boaz Bismuth is in a close battle with David Bitan. At the same time, in places 16 and 17, Nir Barkat leads Ze'ev Elkin by a small margin of only about 400 votes @DaphnaLiel
Dafna Liel
The close battles in Likud (80% of the ballots): In the battle for places 14 and 15, Boaz Bismuth is in a close battle with David Bitan. At the same time, in places 16 and 17, Nir Barkat leads Ze'ev Elkin by a small margin of only about 400 votes
After counting two-thirds of the ballots: Eli Cohen leads, Tali Gottlieb deep in the second ten, Nir Barkat at the bottom of the list. Outside the Knesset currently: Elkin, Silman, Golan, Dichter, Milibetsky
Dafna Liel
Likud primaries | About 45% of the ballots have been counted. A very close race between Etti Attia and Gila Gamliel. Nir Barkat is currently only in 15th place
Where does the news lean?
0YES10NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Likud Party Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.