Likud Party Primary WinnerEli Cohen
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$8Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
33 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
From event to event - to the top of the Likud: This is how Eli Cohen jumped to first place in the primaries
Likud primaries: Netanyahu's allies lead, ministers threatened (news report) — Initial results place Eli Cohen in the lead, and Netanyahu has named 4 out of the 8 he is entitled to place on the list. — The first 16 names on the list include 15 Netanyahu loyalists, according to primaries held in preparation for the Knesset elections on October 27. — If the current results hold, ministers including Ze'ev Elkin and Avi Dichter, and MKs including Hanoch Milvidsky and Keti Sheetrit, will lose their seats.
Vote counting in the primaries is over: Eli Cohen in first place by a margin of 3,000 votes
Vote count complete: Eli Cohen in the lead, Bitan has deteriorated - and Barkat is in the lead | Likud primaries results @glick_sh
Likud vote count complete: Eli Cohen, Ohana and Levin at the top of the list; May Golan, Silman and Dichter out
@avivi_efrat
In conclusion - Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there is really no big difference - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he is left with a few pockets of independence on the list, like Bitan in 14th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out.
Gamliel is only in 18th place, Barkat is in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope members. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset.
One percent remains to be counted. So how can we summarize? Eli Cohen secured first place thanks to crazy fieldwork. Ohana and Levin, who are identified with the struggle in the legal system, are right behind him. Ofir Katz gives the biggest dramatic to 5th place with quite a few social laws. Gottlieb is in 12th place - less than she wanted but survived. Almog Cohen is the only new person to enter the national list and even richer. Ideologically or stylistically, there are really no major differences compared to last time - in terms of loyalty, Netanyahu was not successful in eliminating and he has a few pockets of independence left on the list, like Bitan in 13th place. The haredi commanders have had some decent successes (Bismuth and Bitan) but Milbitsky is out. Gamliel is only in 18th place, Bareket in 16th place and it is very possible that he will push to fourth place if Netanyahu uses his authority to determine the locations of the New Hope people. Api Neve on the coastal plain square - not a realistic place but definitely an event that teaches something about the party and its mindset. In short - there's not much new under the sun.
Likud primaries: After 91% of the votes have been counted - Minister Eli Cohen leads, Ministers Shikli and Amsalem in the second ten. Close battle between Ministers Elkin and Barkat for 24th place @glick_sh
Likud primaries: After 91% of the votes have been counted - Minister Eli Cohen leads, Ministers Shikli and Amsalem in the second ten. Close battle between Ministers Elkin and Barkat for 24th place @glick_sh
Likud primaries: After 91% of the votes have been counted - Minister Eli Cohen leads, Ministers Shikli and Amsalem in the second ten. Close battle between Ministers Elkin and Barkat for 24th place
Likud primaries | 80% of votes counted: Eli Cohen in the lead, Levin and Ohana at the top | Barkat vs. Elkin in a battle for a realistic place, Gottlieb outside the top ten | Current updates
Eli Cohen is emerging as the big winner of the primaries and is establishing himself at the top of the Likud, while Ohana and Levin maintain their strength and Miri Regev opens a large gap over Gottlieb in the battle for the women's primary. The big surprise is Almog Cohen - entering the race almost at the last minute, without a veteran field mechanism, and already in eighth place in the raw results. Several senior and ministerial candidates are weakening significantly: Dichter, Silman and May Golan are out for now, and Bareket is falling from the top to a battle of hundreds of votes against Elkin for the last realistic spot. The functionaries once again preferred candidates with a strong hold on the base and a clear presence on the ground; seniority, title and public exposure are no longer enough to secure a high place on the list. The next battle will be over the armored ones - will Netanyahu be able to use them to bring in names from outside, or will the results force him to turn them into a lifeline for ministers and MKs who fell in the primaries.
For those who are now up, we are fresh after 83% of the ballots - Eli Cohen wins the primaries by a wide margin, followed by Amir Ohana. Ofir Katz with an amazing achievement in the top five, Almog Cohen surprised in 8th place. Bareket in a survival battle against Elkin for the last realistic place by a margin of less than 300 votes. Gottlieb in 12th place, and Bitan survived in 14th.
Dafna Liel
The situation in the Likud primaries (according to 80% of the ballots counted): Eli Cohen leads in 1st place, followed by Amir Ohana (2), Yariv Levin (3), Miri Regev (4), Ofir Katz (5), Yoav Kish (6), Miki Zohar (7), Almog Cohen (8), Dudi Amsalem (9) and Amichai Shikli in 10th place
Likud primaries: After 80% of ballots counted - Eli Cohen continues to lead. He is followed on the list by Amir Ohana, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, Ofir Katz, Yoav Kish, Miki Zohar and Almog Cohen @diklaaharon
Likud vote count: Eli Cohen, Ohana, Levin, Regev and Ofir Katz in the top five Shikli, Almog Cohen and Saada with significant achievements at the expense of ministers. Gottlieb in the second ten, Bitan candidate beats Netanyahu in the new woman slot and Efi Neve leads in the coastal plain
Good morning, a brief summary of the Likud primary results after 75% of the votes have been counted. - A battle at the top between Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana for first and second place. - Miri Regev is the first woman in the Likud, currently in the top five! Tali Gottlieb is outside the top ten and after the armored vehicles, she is in 20th place. The campaign against her apparently worked. David Bitan is currently on the list in a realistic place (oscillating), despite the attack against him by Yair Netanyahu and the Prime Minister's push against him behind the scenes. Nir Barkat is oscillating in a realistic place (after the armored vehicles were weighed). The campaign against him also had its effect. The ministers who will definitely watch the next Knesset on television from home: Idit Silman, May Golan and Avi Dichter. Interim conclusion: flattering Netanyahu is no substitute for real political power. Bonus point, the low voter turnout helped those who were in on the bargain. **As mentioned, the count is not over and there could be further fluctuations.
75% of the votes counted: Eli Cohen in first place, Amir Ohana overtook Yariv Levin and climbed to second place in a close battle between the two. Ministers Silman and Dichter not in a realistic position | All updates @glick_sh
Good morning, a brief summary of the Likud primary results after 75% of the votes have been counted. - A battle at the top between Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana for first and second place. - Miri Regev is the first woman in the Likud, currently in the top five! Tali Gottlieb is outside the top ten and after the armored vehicles, she is in 20th place. The campaign against her apparently worked. David Bitan is currently on the list in a realistic place (wobbles), despite the attack against him by Yair Netanyahu and the Prime Minister's push against him behind the scenes. Nir Barkat is wobbling over a realistic place (after the armored vehicles were weighed). The campaign against him also had its effect. The ministers who will definitely watch the next Knesset on television from home: Idit Silman, May Golan and Avi Dichter. Interim conclusion: flattery to Netanyahu is no substitute for real political power. Bonus point, the low voter turnout helped those who were in on the deals.
Dafna Liel
Interim results in the Likud primaries (about 70% of the ballots): At the top of the list are Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, Amir Ohana, Miri Regev and Ofir Katz, with Yoav Kish climbing to 6th place
After 70% of the ballots - In the lead - Eli Cohen, Levin, Ohana, Regev, Ofir Katz and Kish who rises to 6th place.
Followed by - Almog Cohen in a good position, Shikli, Amsalem, Saada and Gottlieb. Kerei overtakes Bitan in 13th and 14th place.
In the dangerous areas, he is close between Barkat and Bismuth.
Live updates on Telegram
After 70% of the ballots - In the lead - Eli Cohen, Levin, Ohana, Regev, Ofir Katz and Kish who rises to 6th place.
Following them - Almog Cohen in a good position, Shikli, Amsalem, Saada and Gottlieb. Kerei overtakes Bitan in 13th and 14th place.
Close between Barkat and Bismuth.
After counting two-thirds of the ballots: Eli Cohen leads, Tali Gottlieb deep in the second ten, Nir Barkat at the bottom of the list. Outside the Knesset currently: Elkin, Silman, Golan, Dichter, Milibetsky
After 65% of the ballots - In the lead - Eli Cohen, Levin, Ohana, Regev, Ofir Katz and Zohar.
Followed by - Almog Cohen in a nice entrance, Shikli, Amsalem, Saada and Gottlieb. In the dangerous places - Bismuth, Elkin who rises to 17th place and Levy.
Outside - Milbitsky, Silman and Mai Golan
Progressives - the situation after 54% of the ballots - Eli Cohen, Levin, Ohana, Regev and Ofir Katz in the lead.
Eli Cohen holding top spot in Likud primary, with over 50% of vote counted
In 252 polling stations: Half of the votes have already been counted - and Eli Cohen is still in first place
Dvir Jabra
With 45% of the votes counted, Minister Eli Cohen is leading the Likud primaries along with Minister Yariv Levin, Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, Minister Miri Regev and Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz
After counting 40% of the votes in Likud: Battle for second place on the list between Eli Cohen and Yariv Levin. Amir Ohana in third place @yaara_shapira
About 25% of the votes have already been counted: Eli Cohen leads by a wide margin, Miri Regev is the first woman
Dvir Jabra
Likud primaries | After 20% of ballots counted: Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin and Amir Ohana in the lead. Ministers Ze'ev Elkin, May Golan, Avi Dichter and Idit Silman in unrealistic positions and remain outside the Knesset
Dvir Jabra
The Likud primaries | After counting about 15% of the ballots: Minister Eli Cohen leads. Followed by: Ministers Yariv Levin, Amir Ohana, Miri Regev and Yoav Kish. Further in the top ten: Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz, Ministers Miki Zohar and Amichai Shikli, Deputy Minister Almog Cohen and Minister Shlomo Kerei
After counting 13% of the votes in the Likud primaries: Eli Cohen in the lead, Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin following him @glick_sh
Where does the news lean?
39YES0NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
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