Likud Party Primary WinnerYariv Levin
ResolvedOutcome: No$6Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
FWD from Political arena : Analysis of gaps between the previous primaries and the current ones:
Eli Cohen - an increase of 57 votes Amir Ohana - an increase of 5,245 votes Yariv Levin - a decrease of 6,867 votes Miri Regev - an increase of 5,405 votes Ofir Katz - an increase of 14,512 votes Yoav Kish - a decrease of 1,453 votes Miki Zohar - an increase of 2,030 votes Dudi Amsalem - a decrease of 10,714 votes Tali Gottlieb - an increase of 15,030 votes Shlomo Kerei - a decrease of 5,408 Votes Boaz Bismuth - an increase of 3,362 votes David Bitan - a decrease of 2,879 votes Nir Barkat - a decrease of 11,532 votes Gila Gamliel - an increase of 3,234 votes Etti Atia - an increase of 3,472 votes May Golan - an increase of 1,124 votes Kati Shitrit - an increase of 314 votes Avi Dichter - a decrease of 15,592 votes
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Political arena
Mevzken 12
Yariv Levin, who appears to be placed seventh on the Likud list, thanked voters in the primaries: I will continue to act fearlessly to complete legal reform
Dafna Liel
The situation in the Likud primaries (according to 80% of the ballots counted): Eli Cohen leads in 1st place, followed by Amir Ohana (2), Yariv Levin (3), Miri Regev (4), Ofir Katz (5), Yoav Kish (6), Miki Zohar (7), Almog Cohen (8), Dudi Amsalem (9) and Amichai Shikli in 10th place
Likud primaries: After 80% of ballots counted - Eli Cohen continues to lead. He is followed on the list by Amir Ohana, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, Ofir Katz, Yoav Kish, Miki Zohar and Almog Cohen @diklaaharon
Dafna Liel
The drama in the Likud primaries continues: After 75% of the ballots have been counted, there is a change at the top, with Amir Ohana rising to second place, overtaking Yariv Levin. At the same time, Dodi Amsalem continues to climb the list, rising to 9th place
Dafna Liel
Interim results in the Likud primaries (about 70% of the ballots): At the top of the list are Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, Amir Ohana, Miri Regev and Ofir Katz, with Yoav Kish climbing to 6th place
After counting 40% of the votes in Likud: Battle for second place on the list between Eli Cohen and Yariv Levin. Amir Ohana in third place @yaara_shapira
Dvir Jabra
Likud primaries | After 20% of ballots counted: Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin and Amir Ohana in the lead. Ministers Ze'ev Elkin, May Golan, Avi Dichter and Idit Silman in unrealistic positions and remain outside the Knesset
Where does the news lean?
3YES8NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
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