Likud Party Primary WinnerAmir Ohana
ResolvedOutcome: No$31Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
FWD from Political arena : Analysis of gaps between the previous primaries and the current ones:
Eli Cohen - an increase of 57 votes Amir Ohana - an increase of 5,245 votes Yariv Levin - a decrease of 6,867 votes Miri Regev - an increase of 5,405 votes Ofir Katz - an increase of 14,512 votes Yoav Kish - a decrease of 1,453 votes Miki Zohar - an increase of 2,030 votes Dudi Amsalem - a decrease of 10,714 votes Tali Gottlieb - an increase of 15,030 votes Shlomo Kerei - a decrease of 5,408 Votes Boaz Bismuth - an increase of 3,362 votes David Bitan - a decrease of 2,879 votes Nir Barkat - a decrease of 11,532 votes Gila Gamliel - an increase of 3,234 votes Etti Atia - an increase of 3,472 votes May Golan - an increase of 1,124 votes Kati Shitrit - an increase of 314 votes Avi Dichter - a decrease of 15,592 votes
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Political arena
For those who are now up, we are fresh after 83% of the ballots - Eli Cohen wins the primaries by a wide margin, followed by Amir Ohana. Ofir Katz with an amazing achievement in the top five, Almog Cohen surprised in 8th place. Bareket in a survival battle against Elkin for the last realistic place by a margin of less than 300 votes. Gottlieb in 12th place, and Bitan survived in 14th.
Dafna Liel
The situation in the Likud primaries (according to 80% of the ballots counted): Eli Cohen leads in 1st place, followed by Amir Ohana (2), Yariv Levin (3), Miri Regev (4), Ofir Katz (5), Yoav Kish (6), Miki Zohar (7), Almog Cohen (8), Dudi Amsalem (9) and Amichai Shikli in 10th place
Likud primaries: After 80% of ballots counted - Eli Cohen continues to lead. He is followed on the list by Amir Ohana, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, Ofir Katz, Yoav Kish, Miki Zohar and Almog Cohen @diklaaharon
Good morning, a brief summary of the Likud primary results after 75% of the votes have been counted. - A battle at the top between Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana for first and second place. - Miri Regev is the first woman in the Likud, currently in the top five! Tali Gottlieb is outside the top ten and after the armored vehicles, she is in 20th place. The campaign against her apparently worked. David Bitan is currently on the list in a realistic place (oscillating), despite the attack against him by Yair Netanyahu and the Prime Minister's push against him behind the scenes. Nir Barkat is oscillating in a realistic place (after the armored vehicles were weighed). The campaign against him also had its effect. The ministers who will definitely watch the next Knesset on television from home: Idit Silman, May Golan and Avi Dichter. Interim conclusion: flattering Netanyahu is no substitute for real political power. Bonus point, the low voter turnout helped those who were in on the bargain. **As mentioned, the count is not over and there could be further fluctuations.
Good morning, a brief summary of the Likud primary results after 75% of the votes have been counted. - A battle at the top between Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana for first and second place. - Miri Regev is the first woman in the Likud, currently in the top five! Tali Gottlieb is outside the top ten and after the armored vehicles, she is in 20th place. The campaign against her apparently worked. David Bitan is currently on the list in a realistic place (wobbles), despite the attack against him by Yair Netanyahu and the Prime Minister's push against him behind the scenes. Nir Barkat is wobbling over a realistic place (after the armored vehicles were weighed). The campaign against him also had its effect. The ministers who will definitely watch the next Knesset on television from home: Idit Silman, May Golan and Avi Dichter. Interim conclusion: flattery to Netanyahu is no substitute for real political power. Bonus point, the low voter turnout helped those who were in on the deals.
Dafna Liel
The drama in the Likud primaries continues: After 75% of the ballots have been counted, there is a change at the top, with Amir Ohana rising to second place, overtaking Yariv Levin. At the same time, Dodi Amsalem continues to climb the list, rising to 9th place
Dvir Jabra
Likud primaries | After 20% of ballots counted: Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin and Amir Ohana in the lead. Ministers Ze'ev Elkin, May Golan, Avi Dichter and Idit Silman in unrealistic positions and remain outside the Knesset
Where does the news lean?
7YES8NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
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