Likud Party Primary WinnerMiri Regev
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Dafna Liel
The situation in the Likud primaries (according to 80% of the ballots counted): Eli Cohen leads in 1st place, followed by Amir Ohana (2), Yariv Levin (3), Miri Regev (4), Ofir Katz (5), Yoav Kish (6), Miki Zohar (7), Almog Cohen (8), Dudi Amsalem (9) and Amichai Shikli in 10th place
Likud primaries: After 80% of ballots counted - Eli Cohen continues to lead. He is followed on the list by Amir Ohana, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, Ofir Katz, Yoav Kish, Miki Zohar and Almog Cohen @diklaaharon
Good morning, a brief summary of the Likud primary results after 75% of the votes have been counted. - A battle at the top between Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana for first and second place. - Miri Regev is the first woman in the Likud, currently in the top five! Tali Gottlieb is outside the top ten and after the armored vehicles, she is in 20th place. The campaign against her apparently worked. David Bitan is currently on the list in a realistic place (oscillating), despite the attack against him by Yair Netanyahu and the Prime Minister's push against him behind the scenes. Nir Barkat is oscillating in a realistic place (after the armored vehicles were weighed). The campaign against him also had its effect. The ministers who will definitely watch the next Knesset on television from home: Idit Silman, May Golan and Avi Dichter. Interim conclusion: flattering Netanyahu is no substitute for real political power. Bonus point, the low voter turnout helped those who were in on the bargain. **As mentioned, the count is not over and there could be further fluctuations.
Amit Segal
In the battle for the first woman in the Likud: Tali Gottlieb has advanced from the third ten to the end of the second, but presents a huge gap of about 9,000 votes behind Miri Regev. Photo: Jonathan Zindel, Flash 90
Good morning, a brief summary of the Likud primary results after 75% of the votes have been counted. - A battle at the top between Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana for first and second place. - Miri Regev is the first woman in the Likud, currently in the top five! Tali Gottlieb is outside the top ten and after the armored vehicles, she is in 20th place. The campaign against her apparently worked. David Bitan is currently on the list in a realistic place (wobbles), despite the attack against him by Yair Netanyahu and the Prime Minister's push against him behind the scenes. Nir Barkat is wobbling over a realistic place (after the armored vehicles were weighed). The campaign against him also had its effect. The ministers who will definitely watch the next Knesset on television from home: Idit Silman, May Golan and Avi Dichter. Interim conclusion: flattery to Netanyahu is no substitute for real political power. Bonus point, the low voter turnout helped those who were in on the deals.
In short: Three ministers (Dichter, Silman and Golan) definitely ended their careers tonight Two more in danger: Elkin and Gamliel Barkat dropped after years at the top to the third ten And Tali Gottlieb, with a huge 9,000 votes behind Miri Regev for the first woman in the Likud, advanced from the third ten to the end of the second
18% including the districts - Eli Cohen consolidates in first place, Miri Regev first woman
Where does the news lean?
2YES9NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Likud Party Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.