French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner

OpenOutcomes33as of

This hub tracks 33 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (3 more):

Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Eurodeputy Raphael Glucksmann was on Sunday elected the centre-left candidate for next year's French presidential elections, winning comfortably in the first round, organizers of the vote said. • •
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: Marlène Schiappa calls on the winning candidate to form a coalition
Jérôme Guedjbfmtv.com92%match100¢
Live: Raphaël Glucksmann has won the Social Democratic primary
LIVE "I am satisfied with the clarity of the message sent": Jérôme Guedj says he is "happy with the result" of the primary
LIVE Social Democratic primary: Raphaël Glucksmann hit with flour as he left the venue where he celebrated his victory
Socialist Party primary - Place Publique: Raphaël Glucksmann covered in flour after his victory
As in all of French society, violence has no place in politics. There is no such thing as a minor aggression, no physical attack that is insignificant. Support for Raphaël Glucksmann, victim of unacceptable violence this evening in Paris after his victory in the left-wing primary.
LIVE "What a surprise!": François Ruffin, who was not admitted to the Social Democratic primary, mocks Raphaël Glucksmann's victory
Socialist Party primary – Public Square: Raphaël Glucksmann covered in flour after his victory
Live: And here's the latest news of the day: #PRESIDENTIAL The leader of Place Publique, Raphaël Glucksmann, was widely designated as the social-democratic left's candidate for the presidential election, right from the first round...
Live: Jérôme Guedj says he is "happy with the result" of the primary
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: "The Socialist family is showing that it still knows how to organize a democratic consultation," congratulates Arthur Delaporte, spokesperson for the Socialist Party.
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: "The Socialist family is showing that it still knows how to organize a democratic consultation," congratulates Arthur Delaporte, spokesperson for the Socialist Party.
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: "The Socialist family is showing that it still knows how to organize a democratic consultation," congratulates Arthur Delaporte, spokesperson for the Socialist Party.
Raphaël Glucksmann overwhelmingly elected as the social-democratic left-wing candidate for the presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann covered in flour after his victory in the left-wing primary
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "I'm glad I participated in this primary," says losing candidate Jérôme Guedj
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "I'm glad I participated in this primary," says losing candidate Jérôme Guedj
Raphaël Glucksmann was pelted with flour as he left the venue where he was celebrating his victory in the Social Democratic primary.
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: "Mr. Glucksmann is an opponent. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a danger," declares Robert Ménard, the center-right mayor of Béziers.
Live: #PRESIDENTIAL Raphaël Glucksmann was flour-bombed as he left the cafe where he was celebrating his victory in the first round of the social-democratic primary, according to information from the political department of France Télévisions.
Live: "What a surprise!": François Ruffin, who was not admitted to the Social Democratic primary, makes light of Raphaël Glucksmann's victory
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "From now on, not a second can be wasted," the presidential candidate tells his supporters
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "We are the force for change," declares the presidential candidate
LIVE Socialist Party/Public Square Primary: Raphaël Glucksmann asserts, after his victory, that "the democratic left is back"
LIVE Socialist Party/Public Square Primary: Raphaël Glucksmann asserts, after his victory, that "the democratic left is back"
"Tonight, the battle for France begins!": Raphaël Glucksmann's resounding victory in the primary
Raphaël Glucksmann, winner of the Social Democratic primary, reunites with one of his supporters, Yannick Jadot
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: "The right should be able to do the same," declares David Lisnard, presidential candidate (New Energy), on X.
"Raphaël Glucksmann's declaration was a unifying candidacy," says Emmanuel Maurel, the losing candidate in the Social Democratic primary.

What is this event about?

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Related events