French Socialist Primary: First Round WinnerJérôme Guedj
Open$240as of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
"Extremely violent": Jérôme Guedj believes the Socialist Party acted "hastily" by excluding Philippe Brun from the Socialist primary.
Where does the news lean?
2YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 51% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
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