Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?xAI
ResolvedOutcome: No$594Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESElon Musk98%match40¢-100%
This is what happens when Elon runs your company. xAI which is only 2.5 yrs old and has a team size that is 1/10th of many competitors, its #1 in voice, image generation, image edits, forecasting, and many intelligence leaderboards, all while having the most powerful training…
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
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See all outcomes for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.