Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?Meta
ResolvedOutcome: No$31Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Meta $META debuts new AI model "Muse Spark," the first from its Superintelligence Labs led by Alexandr Wang. • • Key shift: Muse Spark is proprietary, not open source. Meta says it hopes to open-source future versions. • • Built from the ground up over the past 9 months after the disappointing Llama 4 launch. Not positioned as top-of-the-line but focused on efficiency. • • Rolling out to Meta AI app, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Ray-Ban glasses. Paid API access coming.
YESFirst Squawk98%match13¢-100%
META PLATFORMS INC. AND NVIDIA CORP. DEEPEN AI ALLIANCE — META WILL DEPLOY “MILLIONS” OF NVIDIA CHIPS INCLUDING BLACKWELL AND FUTURE VERA RUBIN ACCELERATORS, EXPANDING INFRASTRUCTURE TO POWER GLOBAL-SCALE AI SYSTEMS.
YESBloomberg98%match13¢-100%
Meta has agreed to deploy “millions” of Nvidia processors over the next few years, tightening an already close relationship between two of the biggest companies in the AI industry
Where does the news lean?
17YES2NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
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See all outcomes for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.