Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?Nvidia
ResolvedOutcome: No$10Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
China AI lab Deepseek withholds upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, according to sources. $NVDA $AMD
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
China AI lab Deepseek withholds upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, according to sources.
NOCNBC98%match95¢+5%
Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, source says
NOPolymarket98%match95¢+5%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 19% chance the AI bubble bursts this year. > BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI that will replace the previously announced $100 billion deal, per FT.
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
META PLATFORMS INC. AND NVIDIA CORP. DEEPEN AI ALLIANCE — META WILL DEPLOY “MILLIONS” OF NVIDIA CHIPS INCLUDING BLACKWELL AND FUTURE VERA RUBIN ACCELERATORS, EXPANDING INFRASTRUCTURE TO POWER GLOBAL-SCALE AI SYSTEMS.
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
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See all outcomes for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.