Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
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This hub tracks 11 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Meta is back in the Arena! • Muse Spark debuts as a top frontier model across both Text and Vision: • - Text Arena: #3 tied with Gemini-3.1-Pro and Claude-Opus-4.6 • - Vision Arena: #2 tied with Claude-Opus-4.6 • • This marks Meta’s first major release since early 2025. • • Highlights: • - #4 Hard Prompts, #6 Coding, #9 Creative Writing, #10 Instruction Following, #27 Expert • - #3 tied for Business, Management, & Financial Ops, #7 Legal & Government, #12 Writing & Literature • • Meta is back at the frontier. Huge congrats to @AIatMeta on this incredible milestone!
Meta Reassigns Engineers to Improve AI Models- the Information
Meta races to catch up to AI giants with new model
Meta introduced its most powerful AI model, built it into its chatbot American Meta introduced a new AI model, Muse Spark. This is Meta's most powerful model and the first developed by Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL), an AI laboratory founded last year, the company said in a statement. The laboratory's main task is to develop so-called superintelligence (AI systems that surpass the capabilities of the human brain, - IF-U). ...
After MORE THAN A YEAR, Meta finally released a model that passes the Hexagon Test and I’m not gonna lie this is weirdly emotional • • sorry guys but history had to be documented!!
Meta debuts the Muse Spark model in a ‘ground-up overhaul’ of its AI
It’s been so much fun working with the extremely cracked team at Meta on this! This is just the start, even more capable models coming in the future. •
Meta Finally Launches Delayed Muse Spark—Its AI Bid Against OpenAI, Google. • Meta’s first large language model under AI chief Alexandr Wang rolled out Wednesday, to eventually reach Instagram and Facebook.
Meta Superintelligence Labs is launching its first model since Mark Zuckerberg spent billions overhauling the company’s AI efforts. Will it live up to the hype?
New Meta models!
Meta $META debuts new AI model "Muse Spark," the first from its Superintelligence Labs led by Alexandr Wang. • • Key shift: Muse Spark is proprietary, not open source. Meta says it hopes to open-source future versions. • • Built from the ground up over the past 9 months after the disappointing Llama 4 launch. Not positioned as top-of-the-line but focused on efficiency. • • Rolling out to Meta AI app, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Ray-Ban glasses. Paid API access coming.
Meta is reentering the AI race with a new model called Muse Spark
Exclusive: DeepSeek’s New AI Model Will Be a Victory for Huawei
Meta buys AI-powered social networking site "MaltBook" and absorbs its talent into its research organization
Meta acquires AI agent social network Moltbook
How Amazon's massive stake in OpenAI could boost its AI and cloud businesses
OpenAI has secured $110 billion at a $730 billion pre-money valuation, with backing from SoftBank ($30B), NVIDIA ($30B), and Amazon ($50B), alongside new strategic partnerships and expanded AI compute access.
OpenAI said it has finalized a record-breaking $110 billion funding round including investors from Amazon, SoftBank and Nvidia, valuing the company at $730 billion. Read more: : Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg
OPENAI SECURES $110B AT $730B VALUATION OpenAI raised $110 billion at a $730 billion pre-money valuation, backed by SoftBank ($30B), NVIDIA ($30B), and Amazon ($50B), alongside new strategic partnerships and AI compute access. ChatGPT now has 900M+ weekly users, 50M+…
Baidu reported a drop in its revenue for the third consecutive quarter, underscoring the magnitude of weakness in its core advertising and AI businesses
Exclusive: DeepSeek withholds latest AI model from US chipmakers including Nvidia, sources say
Exclusive: DeepSeek withholds latest AI model from US chipmakers including Nvidia, sources say
China AI lab Deepseek withholds upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, according to sources. $NVDA $AMD
China AI lab Deepseek withholds upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, according to sources. $NVDA $AMD
China AI lab Deepseek withholds upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, according to sources.
China AI lab Deepseek withholds upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, according to sources.
Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, source says
Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, source says
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 19% chance the AI bubble bursts this year. > BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI that will replace the previously announced $100 billion deal, per FT.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.