Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?60-80
ResolvedOutcome: No$31Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
CBS News reported, citing a shipping industry source, that no large international commercial vessels are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center in Bahrain, which the United States also participates in, said that commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three weeks on Tuesday, July 20, as Tehran continued to attack ships. According to Lloyd's analysis, between July 22 and 28, only two ships, with their automatic identification systems turned off, passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the U.S.-backed southern route along the coast of Oman.
According to Bloomberg, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by the Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Ship owners and crews in the Strait of Hormuz are hiding their locations to avoid attacks, so the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months, Bloomberg reported.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped, with only 6 ships passing through the strait in the last 24 hours. #AlArabiya_Business
Live: Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran continued to disrupt the supply of energy, causing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to slow to nearly a halt. Just eight ships navigated the artery on Thursday, the second full day of the reinstated U.S. naval blockade of Iran, according to Kpler, a maritime data company. Before the war started in late February, more than 130 ships would pass through the waterway each day. As U.S. strikes on Iran continued for a seventh straight day, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose 1.5 percent on Friday to between $85 and $86 a barrel.
Hormuz, July 4–5: 78 transits (46 in / 32 out), 12 dark. • • • Saturday: IRGC patrol activity, a VHF warning to ships on the U.S.-backed corridor, and six tankers diverting or reversing off the southern route. • • • Sunday: four OFAC-sanctioned vessels transiting inbound, and a sanctioned dark-fleet VLCC identified loading at Kharg for an assessed dark run to East Asia.
Where does the news lean?
7YES26NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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