Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?0-20
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$132Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Bloomberg: Noticeable traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained extremely low, as attacks on ships and Iranian threats have heightened security concerns among ship owners and crews considering a voyage through the waterway.
Reuters, citing maritime data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend Reuters reported, citing maritime traffic tracking data, that fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day over the weekend. / Selection
Shipping data: Fewer than 10 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend.
Reuters, citing shipping tracking data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend. @ilnair
Reuters, citing shipping tracking data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running near-empty. One inbound tanker in the latest 12-hour window, none completing an outbound transit. • • The inbound vessel, an LPG tanker in ballast, went dark for part of its run and is assessed to have used the northern corridor rather than the south. That routing is consistent with the IRGC's 22 July claim that the southern corridor has been mined. • • In the same window (18:00 UTC 25 Jul to 06:00 UTC 26 Jul), one oil/chemicals tanker is mid-transit outbound carrying roughly 280,800 bbl of gasoil, Bandar Mahshahr to Fujairah. • • Empty lanes and a dark northern-corridor run point to the same read: vessels are routing around the southern corridor, not moving through a normalized strait. • • Live tracker here:
Shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Data shows that tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz are at their lowest level in two months.
Hormuz tanker crossings slip to lowest in more than two months, data shows
Initial assessment: Strait of Hormuz transits, 12-hour window (18:00 UTC 22 Jul – 06:00 UTC 23 Jul 2026). • • The Strait remained disrupted through this window. Five vessels crossed the chokepoint: three outbound, two inbound. • • → Only one tanker transited in either direction: roughly 310,600 barrels of naphtha (per @vortexa), Hamriyah to Fujairah, worth about $22M. It carries a dark-fleet ownership designation and a high-risk cargo marker despite maintaining continuous AIS. • • → Two of the five vessels share the same Iran-based registered owner, an entity whose name resembles a U.S.-sanctioned bank. • • → All five transited the north corridor. None used the southern route, consistent with the IRGC's 22 Jul statement that the south corridor is mined. • • → All five maintained continuous AIS. None carry an active OFAC, UK, or EU sanctions designation. • • This is an initial assessment covering a single 12-hour window and may be revised as data matures. • • Tracked on the Windward Maritime AI Platform.
CBS News reported, citing a shipping industry source, that no large international commercial vessels are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center in Bahrain, which the United States also participates in, said that commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three weeks on Tuesday, July 20, as Tehran continued to attack ships. According to Lloyd's analysis, between July 22 and 28, only two ships, with their automatic identification systems turned off, passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the U.S.-backed southern route along the coast of Oman.
Shipping transits slow to a trickle as Strait of Hormuz faces “worst-case scenario”
Live: Just 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler, a maritime data company, with shipping companies avoiding the waterway as the United States and Iran continue to trade strikes.
According to Bloomberg, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by the Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Ship owners and crews in the Strait of Hormuz are hiding their locations to avoid attacks, so the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months, Bloomberg reported.
A significant decrease in the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz following recent tensions.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped since U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade took effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies. • • Crossings through the Strait have fallen sharply across multiple shipping datasets with renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, Tehran’s declaration of a blanket ban on maritime traffic and fresh attacks on commercial vessels has prompted operators to reassess the risks. • • Read more on CNBC:
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed; only 4 ships passed through overnight Reuters, citing data from LSEG, announced that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a very low level over the weekend. According to the report, only 4 ships passed through this route on Sunday. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
London Stock Exchange Group: Only 3 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday as US strikes against Iran escalate
Reuters: London Stock Exchange Group data showed four ships passed through the strait on Sunday, down from eight on Saturday.
Reuters: Shipping data showed that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remained low over the weekend due to intensified attacks by the United States and the Islamic Republic.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped, with only 6 ships passing through the strait in the last 24 hours. #AlArabiya_Business
In the shadow of the escalation of the clashes between the US and Iran, and the American blockade: a 3-week low in maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Ossint sources who monitor maritime traffic in Hormuz announce that yesterday only 8 vessels crossed Hormuz, compared to 15 days earlier. All vessels passed through the "Iranian route" (i.e. the one approved by the Revolutionary Guards) and not a single vessel crossed through the route near Oman (where Iran threatens to attack vessels).
Shipping data shows that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from 13 to seven on the first day after the US resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Reuters reported, citing data from Kepler, that most of the ships passing through have been moving through Iranian waters, while military clashes between the US and the Islamic Republic continue in the Persian Gulf. According to the report, four ships entered the Persian Gulf without cargo on Wednesday and three ships carrying liquefied petroleum gas, coal and fuel oil left the strait. A tanker carrying one million barrels of Saudi crude oil also passed through the strait on Tuesday with its detection system turned off. Kepler data shows that no very large tankers carrying crude oil or ships carrying liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday; An issue that indicates a significant decrease in traffic on this strategic waterway.
Reuters - Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell on Sunday to its lowest level in several weeks, amid renewed tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran and attacks on ships in the Middle East, raising concerns about safety. Ship tracking data from Kpler showed that six vessels passed through the strait on Sunday, the lowest number on any day in five weeks.
FWD from Mehr International: Bloomberg: European countries have agreed to pay tolls for the Strait of Hormuz Bloomberg reported that several major European countries have agreed to the idea that their ships will pay tolls to Iran and Oman when passing through the Strait of Hormuz, believing that paying this fee is inevitable in the wake of the US and the Zionist regime's war against Iran. According to the report, the amount of fees that countries will pay when passing through the Strait of Hormuz is still unclear, but European countries have asked Iranian and Omani authorities not to discriminate between ships based on nationality. mehrnews.com/x3ctvW @MehrnewsIntl
Assaf Rosenzweig
Bloomberg report: Several European countries now agree that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz will pay Iran and Oman
Where does the news lean?
32YES46NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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