Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?40-60
ResolvedOutcome: No$64Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Shipping transits slow to a trickle as Strait of Hormuz faces “worst-case scenario”
According to Bloomberg, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by the Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Ship owners and crews in the Strait of Hormuz are hiding their locations to avoid attacks, so the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months, Bloomberg reported.
HORMUZ TRAFFIC HOLDS FIRM • • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains steady despite renewed attacks on commercial ships and rising Middle East tensions. • • Ship-tracking firm Kpler recorded 36 vessel crossings on Monday and 41 on Tuesday—roughly in line with last week's daily average of about 40 crossings.
Strait Traffic remains resilient • • #MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown. • • The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.
Where does the news lean?
17YES13NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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