Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?80+
ResolvedOutcome: No$30Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Initial assessment: Strait of Hormuz transits, 12-hour window (18:00 UTC 22 Jul – 06:00 UTC 23 Jul 2026). • • The Strait remained disrupted through this window. Five vessels crossed the chokepoint: three outbound, two inbound. • • → Only one tanker transited in either direction: roughly 310,600 barrels of naphtha (per @vortexa), Hamriyah to Fujairah, worth about $22M. It carries a dark-fleet ownership designation and a high-risk cargo marker despite maintaining continuous AIS. • • → Two of the five vessels share the same Iran-based registered owner, an entity whose name resembles a U.S.-sanctioned bank. • • → All five transited the north corridor. None used the southern route, consistent with the IRGC's 22 Jul statement that the south corridor is mined. • • → All five maintained continuous AIS. None carry an active OFAC, UK, or EU sanctions designation. • • This is an initial assessment covering a single 12-hour window and may be revised as data matures. • • Tracked on the Windward Maritime AI Platform.
Bloomberg reported that Sinopec Group, the world's largest owner of supertankers, is trying to convince ship crews to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by offering the equivalent of six months' extra pay. Bloomberg previously reported that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Bloomberg also reported that ship owners and crews are hiding their locations in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid attacks; therefore, the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months.
The Strait Of Hormuz Is Caught In The Crossfire Again. Traffic Has Plummeted By Two Thirds. • Tankers are increasingly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz since hostilities between the U.S. and Iran resumed, according to new data.
According to Bloomberg, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by the Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Ship owners and crews in the Strait of Hormuz are hiding their locations to avoid attacks, so the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months, Bloomberg reported.
Reuters: London Stock Exchange Group data showed four ships passed through the strait on Sunday, down from eight on Saturday.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed due to the escalating US military activity in the region. The measure was taken this Saturday, July 18, after two oil tankers exploded and caught fire south of the strait, after the vessels attempted to navigate through mined waters. The military institution stated that the ships proceeded through a mined passage and alerted mariners to the danger in the area.
Live: Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran continued to disrupt the supply of energy, causing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to slow to nearly a halt. Just eight ships navigated the artery on Thursday, the second full day of the reinstated U.S. naval blockade of Iran, according to Kpler, a maritime data company. Before the war started in late February, more than 130 ships would pass through the waterway each day. As U.S. strikes on Iran continued for a seventh straight day, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose 1.5 percent on Friday to between $85 and $86 a barrel.
Shipping data shows that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from 13 to seven on the first day after the US resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Reuters reported, citing data from Kepler, that most of the ships passing through have been moving through Iranian waters, while military clashes between the US and the Islamic Republic continue in the Persian Gulf. According to the report, four ships entered the Persian Gulf without cargo on Wednesday and three ships carrying liquefied petroleum gas, coal and fuel oil left the strait. A tanker carrying one million barrels of Saudi crude oil also passed through the strait on Tuesday with its detection system turned off. Kepler data shows that no very large tankers carrying crude oil or ships carrying liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday; An issue that indicates a significant decrease in traffic on this strategic waterway.
A slight increase in the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz before the resumption of the US blockade... Kpler data shows 9 ships passing through the Iranian route
Hormuz transit recap, July 6: despite attacks and overnight slowdown, the strait stayed open through the full 24-hour window with 18 vessels inbound, 27 outbound. Multi-source intelligence confirmed two OFAC-designated tankers mid-transit, both carrying Kharg Island crude to China. • • Outbound crude flow: roughly 12M barrels across seven tankers, valued at an estimated $872M combined with products, per @Vortexa.
US Offers To Unfreeze Iranian Funds To Open Strait Of Hormuz - WSJ •
U.S. Dangles Rewards for Opening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran Isn't Budging. -- WSJ
The US representative: We call for an end to Iranian aggression and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
8YES38NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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