Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
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18:01/August 4
Operational Assessment: An average of one offending vessel is hit daily in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM escorts have been suspended and strikes on Iranian military infrastructure on the southern coast and islands have not affected Iran's ability to monitor and control the Strait.
SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY • • Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic. • • While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers. • • Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY • • Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic. • • While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers. • • Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
Bloomberg: Noticeable traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained extremely low, as attacks on ships and Iranian threats have heightened security concerns among ship owners and crews considering a voyage through the waterway.
"Hormuz" changed the equations of maritime trade The unprecedented blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and a 70% reduction in Suez Canal traffic have faced unprecedented security and humanitarian challenges for the $125 billion trade in the Persian Gulf waters. The latest report from Alliance Insurance Company emphasizes that increased security risks in the world's strategic bottlenecks have increased hull damage costs by 33% compared to the pre-pandemic period. @IRNA_1313
Reuters, citing maritime data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend Reuters reported, citing maritime traffic tracking data, that fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day over the weekend. / Selection
Shipping data: Fewer than 10 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend.
Reuters, citing shipping tracking data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend. @ilnair
Reuters, citing shipping tracking data: Fewer than 10 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running near-empty. One inbound tanker in the latest 12-hour window, none completing an outbound transit. • • The inbound vessel, an LPG tanker in ballast, went dark for part of its run and is assessed to have used the northern corridor rather than the south. That routing is consistent with the IRGC's 22 July claim that the southern corridor has been mined. • • In the same window (18:00 UTC 25 Jul to 06:00 UTC 26 Jul), one oil/chemicals tanker is mid-transit outbound carrying roughly 280,800 bbl of gasoil, Bandar Mahshahr to Fujairah. • • Empty lanes and a dark northern-corridor run point to the same read: vessels are routing around the southern corridor, not moving through a normalized strait. • • Live tracker here:
Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets
The World's Oil Tankers Are Seeking To Flee Hormuz. The Bill Is $2.5 Million Per Ship. • The combined disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb is forcing some shipments to take a circuitous route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, making voyages longer and $ 2.5 million more expensive.
The World's Oil Tankers Are Seeking To Flee Hormuz. The Bill Is $2.5 Million Per Ship. • The combined disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb is forcing some shipments to take a circuitous route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, making voyages longer and $ 2.5 million more expensive.
The World's Oil Tankers Are Seeking To Flee Hormuz. The Bill Is $2.5 Million Per Ship. • The combined disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb is forcing some shipments to take a circuitous route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, making voyages longer and $ 2.5 million more expensive.
The World's Oil Tankers Are Seeking To Flee Hormuz. The Bill Is $2.5 Million Per Ship. • The combined disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb is forcing some shipments to take a circuitous route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, making voyages longer and $ 2.5 million more expensive.
Kpler data: Transit through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday fell 60% to 6 ships compared to the previous day.
Kpler data: Transit through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday fell 60% to 6 ships compared to the previous day.
Shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
With escalating security risks threatening navigation, the number of oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to just one, the lowest level in over two months. #FromTheEvent
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Data: Transit through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in over two months
Data: Transit through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in over two months
Data shows that tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz are at their lowest level in two months.
Reuters reported that the number of oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to one on July 23, the lowest level since May 7, according to Kepler data. According to the report, only one tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on that day, and no ships entered the waterway. At the same time, oil prices also rose to $100 per barrel once again. Reuters also reported that Saudi Aramco has begun shipping additional crude oil from Egypt's Sidi Karir port to circumvent transportation restrictions.
Reuters reported that the number of oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to one on July 23, the lowest level since May 7, according to Kepler data. According to the report, only one tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on that day, and no ships entered the waterway. At the same time, oil prices also rose to $100 per barrel once again. Reuters also reported that Saudi Aramco has begun shipping additional crude oil from Egypt's Sidi Karir port to circumvent transportation restrictions.
Reuters reported that the number of oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to one on July 23, the lowest level since May 7, according to Kepler data. According to the report, only one tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on that day, and no ships entered the waterway. At the same time, oil prices also rose to $100 per barrel once again. Reuters also reported that Saudi Aramco has begun shipping additional crude oil from Egypt's Sidi Karir port to circumvent transportation restrictions.
Hormuz tanker crossings slip to lowest in more than two months, data shows
Initial assessment: Strait of Hormuz transits, 12-hour window (18:00 UTC 22 Jul – 06:00 UTC 23 Jul 2026). • • The Strait remained disrupted through this window. Five vessels crossed the chokepoint: three outbound, two inbound. • • → Only one tanker transited in either direction: roughly 310,600 barrels of naphtha (per @vortexa), Hamriyah to Fujairah, worth about $22M. It carries a dark-fleet ownership designation and a high-risk cargo marker despite maintaining continuous AIS. • • → Two of the five vessels share the same Iran-based registered owner, an entity whose name resembles a U.S.-sanctioned bank. • • → All five transited the north corridor. None used the southern route, consistent with the IRGC's 22 Jul statement that the south corridor is mined. • • → All five maintained continuous AIS. None carry an active OFAC, UK, or EU sanctions designation. • • This is an initial assessment covering a single 12-hour window and may be revised as data matures. • • Tracked on the Windward Maritime AI Platform.
Initial assessment: Strait of Hormuz transits, 12-hour window (18:00 UTC 22 Jul – 06:00 UTC 23 Jul 2026). • • The Strait remained disrupted through this window. Five vessels crossed the chokepoint: three outbound, two inbound. • • → Only one tanker transited in either direction: roughly 310,600 barrels of naphtha (per @vortexa), Hamriyah to Fujairah, worth about $22M. It carries a dark-fleet ownership designation and a high-risk cargo marker despite maintaining continuous AIS. • • → Two of the five vessels share the same Iran-based registered owner, an entity whose name resembles a U.S.-sanctioned bank. • • → All five transited the north corridor. None used the southern route, consistent with the IRGC's 22 Jul statement that the south corridor is mined. • • → All five maintained continuous AIS. None carry an active OFAC, UK, or EU sanctions designation. • • This is an initial assessment covering a single 12-hour window and may be revised as data matures. • • Tracked on the Windward Maritime AI Platform.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.