Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?↑ 6.75%
Open$181as of
Odds now
The market prices a 73% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES73¢
NO27¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
U.S. MORTGAGE DEMAND WEAKENS AS RATES HIT ONE-YEAR HIGH • • U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.9% in the week ended July 31, according to the MBA. • • The purchase index declined 3.6%, while the refinance index fell 1.9%. • • The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 5 bps to 6.81%, its highest level in more than a year, weighing on homebuying and refinancing activity.
Mortgage rates rise to one-year high
Mortgage rates rise to one-year high
YESAPws95%match79¢-8%
MCLEAN, Va. (AP) — The average rate on a 30-year mortgage hits the highest level in a year, Freddie Mac says, after climbing to 6.66%
YESNews92%match79¢-8%
*US MORTGAGE RATES RISE TO 6.66%, HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR
US mortgage rates climb again in latest week, many at year high
YESReuters95%match79¢-8%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 7 Bps to 6.76 PCT in July 24 Week - MBA
Mortgage rates hit highest level in nearly a year
THE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE JUST HIT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN NEARLY A YEAR • • The average rate climbed to 6.58% this week, per Freddie Mac, and the pressure traces straight back to the oil market. • • Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield has been climbing since the Iran conflict started driving crude higher in late February: • • • 10-year yield in late February, before the war: 3.97% • • One week ago: 4.57% • • Midday Thursday: 4.7% • • Higher oil stokes inflation expectations, inflation expectations push up long-term yields, and yields set mortgage pricing. That chain can add hundreds of dollars a month for borrowers, one reason home sales have stayed sluggish all year.
YESAPws94%match78¢-6%
MCLEAN, Va. (AP) — Average rate on a 30-year mortgage hits the highest level in nearly 12 months, Freddie Mac says, after rising to 6.58%
Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels in Nearly a Year -- WSJ
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Reaches Highest Level In Almost A Year
Mortgage rates hit highest level since the start of the Iran war
Mortgage rates rise to highest level in nearly a year, causing homebuyers to pause
Mortgage rates rise to highest level in nearly a year, causing homebuyers to pause
FREDDIE MAC: US 30-YR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE STANDS AT 6.37% IN MAY 7 WEEK VS 6.30% PRIOR WEEK. • • FREDDIE MAC: 15-YR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE AVERAGED 5.72% AS OF MAY 7TH ...
MORTGAGE RATES CLIMB TO ONE-MONTH HIGH, PRESSURE HOUSING MARKET • • U.S. MORTGAGE RATES ROSE TO 6.37%, THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL IN A MONTH, ACCORDING TO FREDDIE MAC, ADDING PRESSURE TO AN ALREADY WEAK SPRING HOUSING SEASON. • • RATES BRIEFLY DIPPED BELOW 6% EARLIER THIS YEAR BUT HAVE CLIMBED AGAIN AMID GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, INCLUDING THE IRAN CONFLICT, PUSHING SOME BUYERS TO THE SIDELINES. • • HIGHER BORROWING COSTS ARE SLOWING SALES, INCREASING PRICE CUTS IN WEAKER MARKETS, AND UNDERMINING EXPECTATIONS FOR A STRONG SPRING REBOUND. ...
Freddie Mac: US 30-yr Fixed-Rate Mortgage stands at 6.37% in May 7 week vs 6.30% prior week. • • Freddie Mac: 15-Yr fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.72% as of May 7th
MORTGAGE RATES CLIMB TO ONE-MONTH HIGH, PRESSURE HOUSING MARKET • • U.S. mortgage rates rose to 6.37%, their highest level in a month, according to Freddie Mac, adding pressure to an already weak spring housing season. • • Rates briefly dipped below 6% earlier this year but have climbed again amid geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran conflict, pushing some buyers to the sidelines. • • Higher borrowing costs are slowing sales, increasing price cuts in weaker markets, and undermining expectations for a strong spring rebound.
NOAPws99%match47¢-43%
MCLEAN, Va. (AP) — Average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.37% this week, Freddie Mac says, returning to levels of four weeks ago
Where does the news lean?
39YES17NO24neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
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