Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?↑ 6.30%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$29Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Mortgage demand drops 10.5% as the 30-year fixed rate hits 6.43%, highest since October 2025, per MBA data. • • Refinance demand fell 15% week over week. Purchase applications down 5%. • • MBA's Joel Kan: "Higher mortgage rates, coupled with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty, pushed some potential homebuyers to the sidelines."
Mortgage demand drops more than 10% as rates hit the highest level since October
YESReuters99%match79¢+27%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 13 Bps in March 20 Week to 6.43 PCT, Highest Since October - MBA
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
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