Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?↓ 5.70%
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Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Homebuyers face the highest mortgage rates in more than a year. • • The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reaches 6.69%, its highest level in more than a year. The average 15-year fixed rate eases slightly to 6.01%. • • Mortgage rates are affected by several factors, including the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. Though mortgage rates are not directly affected by the Fed's interest rate decisions, they closely track the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.67% as of Thursday afternoon.
US 30-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages 30-Jul Wk: 6.66% (prev 6.58%) • - 15-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages: 6.04% (prev 5.96%) • •
US mortgage rates climb again in latest week, many at year high
THE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE JUST HIT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN NEARLY A YEAR • • The average rate climbed to 6.58% this week, per Freddie Mac, and the pressure traces straight back to the oil market. • • Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield has been climbing since the Iran conflict started driving crude higher in late February: • • • 10-year yield in late February, before the war: 3.97% • • One week ago: 4.57% • • Midday Thursday: 4.7% • • Higher oil stokes inflation expectations, inflation expectations push up long-term yields, and yields set mortgage pricing. That chain can add hundreds of dollars a month for borrowers, one reason home sales have stayed sluggish all year.
30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE AVG HITS 6.58% IN WEEK OF JULY 23, HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 21, 2025: FREDDIE MAC
NOAPws92%match36¢+167%
MCLEAN, Va. (AP) — Average rate on a 30-year mortgage hits the highest level in nearly 12 months, Freddie Mac says, after rising to 6.58%
Bloomberg: US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in almost a year, as a flareup in tensions in the Middle East renewed concerns about inflation. The average for a 30-year fixed loan was 6.55%, up from 6.49% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. Rates haven’t been this high since late August.
MORTGAGE RATES HIT ONE-YEAR HIGH • • US mortgage rates climbed to 6.55%, their highest level in nearly a year, as renewed Middle East tensions fueled inflation fears. • • Higher borrowing costs are cooling demand, with home sales falling and many first-time buyers priced out. • • Wealthier buyers continue to support prices, pushing the median US home sale price to a new record.
Mortgage rates rose last week to the highest level since August 2025, and that caused homebuyer demand for loans to pull back. Refinance demand, however, moved higher.
US MBA Mortgage Applications July-10: -2.7 % (prev -2.2%) • - 30-Yr Mortgage Rate: 6.65% (prev 6.58%)
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US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls 7 Bps to 6.35 PCT in April 17 Week - MBA
MORTGAGE RATES CLIMBED FOR THE FIFTH STRAIGHT WEEK AS THE WAR IN IRAN WEIGHED ON THE US HOUSING MARKET, PER NYT ...
Buying a home just got more expensive as the Iran war drives up mortgage rates
US mortgage rates climbed for a 4th straight week, up to 6.57% on average, rising to its highest level since August - MBA • • People who locked in a 30-year fixed mortgage at 2.69% in 2021
The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose last week to its highest level since August, reaching 6.57% for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. • • More Here →
Weekly mortgage refinance demand is down more than 40% in the past month. • Mortgage demand from both homeowners and potential home buyers is dropping due to higher mortgage rates and concern over the war with Iran.
NOReuters99%match58¢+66%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 14 Bps to 6.57 PCT, Highest Since August 2025, in March 27 Week - MBA
Where does the news lean?
0YES45NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
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