Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 45% on Jul 15, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 61¢ to 45¢ (-16 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Walter Bloomberg. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match61¢
+5m49.5¢
+30m47¢
+1h45¢
+24h70.5¢
1h move-16 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesWalter Bloomberg99%match
US AVERAGE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE RISES 7 BPS TO 6.65 PCT IN JULY 10 WEEK - MBA
YesReuters99%match
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 7 Bps to 6.65 PCT in July 10 Week - MBA

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$5K

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Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.