Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?↓ 5.90%
Open$12Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Mortgage rates hit 7.4 percent for first time since November 2023 Mortgage rates increased again this week, with the average 30-year rate hitting 7.4 percent for the first time since November 2023, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 12 basis points from last week, when it was 7.28 percent, according to the government-sponsored company. This rate has risen for seven consecutive weeks…
US mortgage rates rose for the seventh consecutive week, reaching 7.4%. Freddie Mac announced that the average interest rate on its 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 7.4% from 7.28% the previous week. This is the highest rate since November 2023, when it stood at 6.3%. #Arabic_Business
US 30-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages 08-Oct Wk: 7.40% (prev 7.28%) • - 15-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages: 6.73% (prev 6.60%) • •
U.S. MORTGAGE RATES HIT 7.4% AS HOME SELLERS CUT PRICES • • The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.4%, its highest since November 2023, further weakening housing demand. • • With buyers retreating, 21% of sellers reduced asking prices, a record share for this time of year in Redfin's data. • • Home prices are falling in several major markets, including Dallas (-5%), Austin (-3.4%) and Tampa (-1.9%) year-over-year. • • Sellers are increasingly offering closing-cost credits and mortgage-rate buydowns, shifting negotiating power toward buyers despite elevated borrowing costs.
NOReuters95%match98¢-1%
U.S. 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage Averages 7.40 PCT in Oct 8 Week, Highest Since Nov 16, 2023 Week, vs 7.28 PCT Prior Week-Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac data shows that the average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.03% this week. This level has a significant psychological impact on buyers. This article summarizes five key points to understand regarding how the real estate market will change after interest rates rise above 7%.
Homebuyers face the highest mortgage rates in more than a year. • • The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reaches 6.69%, its highest level in more than a year. The average 15-year fixed rate eases slightly to 6.01%. • • Mortgage rates are affected by several factors, including the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. Though mortgage rates are not directly affected by the Fed's interest rate decisions, they closely track the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.67% as of Thursday afternoon.
US 30-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages 30-Jul Wk: 6.66% (prev 6.58%) • - 15-Year Freddie Mac Fixed Rate Mortgages: 6.04% (prev 5.96%) • •
THE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE JUST HIT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN NEARLY A YEAR • • The average rate climbed to 6.58% this week, per Freddie Mac, and the pressure traces straight back to the oil market. • • Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield has been climbing since the Iran conflict started driving crude higher in late February: • • • 10-year yield in late February, before the war: 3.97% • • One week ago: 4.57% • • Midday Thursday: 4.7% • • Higher oil stokes inflation expectations, inflation expectations push up long-term yields, and yields set mortgage pricing. That chain can add hundreds of dollars a month for borrowers, one reason home sales have stayed sluggish all year.
NOAPws92%match56¢+73%
MCLEAN, Va. (AP) — Average rate on a 30-year mortgage hits the highest level in nearly 12 months, Freddie Mac says, after rising to 6.58%
Bloomberg: US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in almost a year, as a flareup in tensions in the Middle East renewed concerns about inflation. The average for a 30-year fixed loan was 6.55%, up from 6.49% a week earlier, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. Rates haven’t been this high since late August.
Mortgage rates rose last week to the highest level since August 2025, and that caused homebuyer demand for loans to pull back. Refinance demand, however, moved higher.
Mortgage rates fall at fastest pace in almost two years
Mortgage demand drops 10.5% as the 30-year fixed rate hits 6.43%, highest since October 2025, per MBA data. • • Refinance demand fell 15% week over week. Purchase applications down 5%. • • MBA's Joel Kan: "Higher mortgage rates, coupled with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty, pushed some potential homebuyers to the sidelines."
Mortgage demand drops more than 10% as rates hit the highest level since October
NOReuters98%match44¢+120%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 13 Bps in March 20 Week to 6.43 PCT, Highest Since October - MBA
Where does the news lean?
0YES71NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 90% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
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