Fed Decision in October?25 bps increase
Open$7.1Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES16¢
NO85¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Reuters: Weaker economic data in the United States has reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this month. Markets now have an 80% chance of keeping rates unchanged, up from 74% before the jobs report.
Live: The slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent adds credence to the argument floated by several top officials this week that the Fed can afford to proceed gradually with rate increases after its adjustment in September. Expectations for another quarter-point rate rise at the Fed’s next meeting in October, just days before the midterms, have plummeted in the past few days.
Odds of October Rate Increase Drop as Fed's Williams Signals He's Open to a Pause -- Barrons.com
Where does the news lean?
3YES4NO16neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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