Fed Decision in October?
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Market pricing makes No change the favorite at 71% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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FED MINUTES: MOST BACKED HOLDING RATES IN JULY, SEVERAL FAVORED A HIKE • • - Many participants said higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall • - Some said financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target<b... FED MINUTES: MOST BACKED HOLDING RATES IN JULY, SEVERAL FAVORED A HIKE • • - Many participants said higher rates would likely be necessary if inflation did not fall • - Some said financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target • - A few who favored raising rates at the meeting judged doing so would help forestall the need for further hikes • - Various participants said tighter financial conditions over the inter-meeting period reflected strong growth and expectations the Fed would adopt a more restrictive stance before long • - Several said price increases over the past year were broad based across goods and services • - Almost all members agreed on retaining statement language affirming the FOMC "will deliver price stability" • • Staff projections showed an inflation forecast similar to June, with the economic outlook a "touch weaker." • • Chairman Warsh said six scheduled meetings per year, held roughly every two months, would allow more information to accumulate between meetings. No decisions were made and Warsh indicated no change to the 2026 schedule. • • The July 29 decision held the target range at 3.50-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 bps increase.
Live: After today’s jobs report, investors are betting the Fed will keep interest rates the same at their next meeting in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the board keeping rates where they are jumped to 56 percent from 45 percent yesterday. For now, investors are still expecting a hike in October, but those odds dropped to 47 percent from 52 percent yesterday.
FED DECISION: JPM'S MARKET PLAYBOOK • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, despite markets pricing a sizable chance of a surprise hike. • • Its base case is a hawkish hold (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold could lift stocks up to 1%, while a 25bp hike could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with tech stocks likely hit hardest.
FED DECISION: JPM'S MARKET PLAYBOOK • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, despite markets pricing a sizable chance of a surprise hike. • • Its base case is a hawkish hold (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold could lift stocks up to 1%, while a 25bp hike could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with tech stocks likely hit hardest.
Warsh's early tone signals continuity, not change. No cuts expected this year according to CME's FedWatch. A hike toward the end of the year is still an open question. Neither this week's CPI print nor the recent weak labor report changes the Fed's stance, since they look past single-month trends.
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.