Fed Decision in October?No change
Open$8.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 84% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES84¢
NO17¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Goldman is particularly reluctant to change its call: • • "We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate.... We suspect that some FOMC participants will agree with this, and for that reason we see the Fed’s decision as less clear-cut than market pricing implies." • • "But we suspect that most FOMC participants will worry about the potential market reaction to not delivering a hike that recent Fed communication has guided the market to now almost fully price. Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech led the market to expect a hike if the inflation news was imperfect, and while the CPI was not concerning, it was imperfect."
Warsh's early tone signals continuity, not change. No cuts expected this year according to CME's FedWatch. A hike toward the end of the year is still an open question. Neither this week's CPI print nor the recent weak labor report changes the Fed's stance, since they look past single-month trends.
Where does the news lean?
3YES4NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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