Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Odds fell to 17% on Oct 2, 2026
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? On , the market’s odds fell from 24.5¢ to 16.5¢ (-8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com.
How did the odds move?
24.5¢
16¢
16.5¢
16.5¢
-8 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Nonytimes.com97%match
Live: Ahead of today’s jobs numbers, investors are betting on the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady at its next meeting in October before raising them another quarter of a percentage point at its meeting in December. Those bets could change depending on the numbers that come out today.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 17% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES17¢
NO84¢
$5.8M
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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