Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Hike–Hike
Open$97Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO91¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. • • The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. • • The September CPI, due Oct. 14, was always going to be more important than this report, which nevertheless takes some of the hawkish edge off of the recent repricing of the Fed's path in markets.
New Fed guidance: “There is no need for urgency.” • • John Williams, the vice chair of the FOMC, delivers notably precise pushback in guiding against an October rate hike that has been getting priced by investors. • • • • He lays out his base case: One more hike “may be appropriate late this year.” • • Following Warsh’s press conference two weeks ago, markets had pushed pricing of an October rate increase above 50% — to as high as 70% in futures markets in recent days. • • Here is the key passage from the NY Fed president’s prepared remarks on Tuesday afternoon: “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information. The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals—and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy.” • • “If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. But that is just my forecast, and time—and the totality of the data—will tell.”
Trump chose Warsh to lead the Fed with the goal of lowering interest rates... but Warsh raised them. Trump chose him to head the Fed amid repeated calls for interest rate cuts, but Kevin Warsh has now led the first US interest rate hike in more than three years. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% unanimously, while Fed officials predict further tightening is possible in 2026. Does Warsh's decision strengthen the Fed's independence from Trump's pressure, or are we witnessing the beginning of a larger confrontation between the White House and the central bank? #Arabic_Business
"the meeting was more hawkish than we expected in a few ways. First, a 16-2 majority projected at least one more hike this year, and there were no dissenting votes against today’s hike. Second, the median funds rate projection remained quite elevated through 2029, and the median neutral rate dot rose from 3.06% to 3.25%. Third, Chairman Warsh described the hike as having “removed a dose of accommodation” three times."
Fed rate hike jolts markets after it signals a huge shock. • Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4% and signaled another 2026 hike as stubborn inflation, energy prices and markets pressure Kevin Warsh.
The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, and its dot plot predicts another rate hike this year (full statement attached).
New York stock market falls on Fed rate hike and Wash's hawkish remarks... Dow down 1.2%
Markets PM: Fed Issues First Rate Hike Since 2023 -- WSJ Newsletter
Here are the key points from the Federal Open Market Committee statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, saying the goal is to bring inflation back to its 2% target "sooner." Policymakers also expect another rate hike before the end of the year and have removed their projections for a rate cut next year. They now believe the Fed will keep interest rates steady through 2027. During his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly emphasized the strength of the economy and said today's rate hike removes "a dose of easing" from monetary policy. Warsh declined to answer questions about whether he had recently been in contact with US President Donald Trump. The Fed's decision was unanimous, and the projections of committee members, known as the "dot chart," show strong support for at least one more rate hike, with 16 officials believing it is likely. Yields on two-year US Treasury notes rose to their highest level since 2024 following the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy and Warsh's press conference, while longer-term yields held steady or declined, in stark contrast to the day of the last interest rate decision. Stocks fell, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%. #Arabic_Business
On the final day of the FOMC meeting, a first interest rate hike in 3 years and 2 months is considered likely; inflation countermeasures will be the focus, as Chairman Warsh holds a press conference.
YESReuters97%match17¢-41%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hike Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, Said 86 of 101 Economists (vs 65 of 93 Expecting Hold in Sept 9 Poll)
The Fed's interest rate hike next week is becoming increasingly likely: inflation is not slowing in the United States and remains at 3.4%, fueled by soaring gas prices.
US INFLATION ACCELERATES — FED HIKE RISK RISES • • US inflation picked up in August, strengthening the case for another Fed rate hike next week. • • Headline CPI rose 0.4% M/M and 3.4% Y/Y, while core CPI increased 0.3% M/M. Gasoline was a key driver, with oil back above $100/barrel adding to inflation concerns. • • Markets had been pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25bp hike ahead of the report. • • Higher inflation + resilient employment + elevated oil prices = increasing pressure on the Fed to tighten.
Where does the news lean?
140YES37NO68neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.