How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.6%
Open$3Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 18% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES18¢
NO83¢
as of
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 81% — signal sentiment, not the market price.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Related markets
See all outcomes for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.