How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 1.0%
Open$41Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The 10-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high, creating a drastically different environment for the market and the US economy compared to the beginning of this decade. At that time, yields had plummeted to well below 1%. This article outlines the entire process that has led us to this point.
NOFirst Squawk98%match94¢+5%
5-Year JGB Yield Declines 2 bps to 1.660%
NOCNBC98%match95¢+4%
Treasury yields lower as markets brace for retail sales data
NOBloomberg99%match91¢+9%
The 10-year Treasury note’s yield is headed for a fifth straight week of minimal change, rivaling its longest stretch of inertia in the past two decades
YESCNBC99%match15¢-93%
10-year Treasury yield dips as investors await final economic data of 2025
YESCNBC98%match10¢-90%
Treasury yields fall as markets await key jobs report
Where does the news lean?
3YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Related markets
See all outcomes for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.